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#7 - RW 269
Russian Daily Says Moscow Preparing for US
Withdrawal From Nuclear Test Ban
Izvestiya
12 August 2003
Article by Dmitriy Litovkin:
"Nuclear Well"
The United States has no intention of testing nuclear weapons, however it
cannot be ruled out that such tests may be needed in the future in order to
develop ground-penetrating (glubinnyye) nuclear munitions. Secretary of State
Colin Powell said this a few days ago at a meeting with US journalists. This
issue was raised after the US Administration got the Senate 20 May to lift the
ban on manufacturing these weapons and a number of US academics said that this
kind of bomb could not be safe for people around on the surface of the Earth
since the radiation following the use of these weapons could spread across the
"well" that is formed as a result of the attack.
"The United States is unlikely to resume nuclear tests in the near
future since there is no need for this," Izvestiya was told by Vladimir
Dvorkin, head of the Defense Ministry's No. 4 Central Research Institute, which
until 2001 was engaged in providing operational and strategic validation for the
organizational development of the nuclear forces. "The Americans currently
have a powerful computer base enabling them to simulate nuclear explosions and
develop new nuclear munitions. On the other hand, there is no need for them to
hurry either for the reason that a lengthy cycle of developing and testing
new-generation penetrators (penetration devices) needs to be carried out first.
With their help the new charges are to penetrate ground, concrete, and rock and
without them nuclear weapons tests are simply pointless."
The United States is the only member of the nuclear club not to have signed
the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. This fact does not bother Washington
in the least; in response to all the international community's complaints it
says that the United States has declared a moratorium on nuclear tests and this
measure is quite sufficient.
However, the administration's decision to unfreeze the work on the
development of small nuclear munitions ($15 million has already been earmarked
for this purpose) indicates that both US politicians and military are
psychologically prepared to cross the nuclear Rubicon. There has been no comment
from Moscow on this but there is indirect confirmation that Russia is also
preparing for the United States' possible withdrawal from the moratorium. Not so
long ago Chief of the General Staff Anatoliy Kvashnin followed by Defense
Minister Sergey Ivanov visited Russia's only nuclear test range on the Novaya
Zemlya archipelago.
The need for George Bush to carry out his election promises may also provide
additional impetus for Washington's withdrawal from the moratorium. The US
President promised voters that as early as 2004 the country would be securely
protected by an antimissile umbrella against potential missile attack by
"rogue" nations. The designers see one solution to the situation,
namely, to fit the antimissiles with nuclear warheads. But the United States
cannot commission untested warheads for the antimissiles and small nuclear
charges for the destruction of the enemy's underground fortifications without
full-scale nuclear tests.
The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty is the only obstacle standing in
the way of these plans. Admittedly, it is not known when Washington will abandon
the moratorium. In any case, according to Colin Powell, this matter will not be
discussed during George Bush's next meeting with Vladimir Putin.
Whose Nuclear Nightstick Is Scarier?
According to public opinion poll figures, two-thirds of Russian citizens (65
percent) believe that there is still a threat of nuclear weapons being used,
furthermore, one in five respondents consider this to be a significant threat.
And only 28 percent are inclined not to take it seriously -- they consider it
negligible or nonexistent.
The misgivings seem to be increasing with the passage of time. Shortly after
the 11 September terrorist act when the United States was preparing the
retaliatory operation in Afghanistan reports appeared in the media regarding the
United States' possible use of tactical nuclear weapons in the course of this
operation. In October 2001 this hypothesis gave rise to definite misgivings
among 41 percent of the Muscovites polled while 58 percent of respondents felt
no misgivings. Admittedly, from the sociological viewpoint a direct comparison
of the two polls' figures is not entirely correct -- after all, in 2001 it was a
question of a specific area of the world.
Nevertheless the figures regarding the increased misgivings do coincide with
the feelings of the respondents themselves. Some 41 percent of them believe that
over past 10 years the threat of nuclear weapons being used has increased to a
varying degrees. And only 19 percent believe that the threat has diminished
(one-third of respondents expressed the view that everything is still as it was
10 years ago).
Experts from the ROMIR (Russian Public Opinion and Market Research
Institute)-Monitoring Agency, which conducted the current poll, failed to
elucidate the reason for respondents' increased concern. We may, however,
imagine that the increase in this concern has been promoted by the increased
speculation regarding the possibility of weapons of mass destruction falling
into the hands of international terrorists. At least it was international
terrorists that 32 percent of respondents cited in response to the following
request for clarification: "In your opinion, from whom does this threat
currently emanate?" The same proportion of respondents are afraid of the
nuclear weapons in the United States' possession. Some 7 percent of respondents
are convinced that the DPRK poses a nuclear threat, 6 percent of respondents
think that about China, while India and Pakistan received 4 percent "for
the pair," and 2 percent of Russian respondents apiece are afraid of the
"other NATO nuclear powers" (Britain and France) and their owned
state. The remaining 11 percent could not make up their minds.
CDI Russia Weekly #269 ~ Contents • Next
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