#15 - RW 267
The Globe and Mail (Canada)
July 30, 2003
It's time to talk
The resolution of the crisis in North Korea is not just a matter of concern to the United States, says Russia's deputy foreign minister ALEXANDER LOSYUKOV

I would describe the present situation in and around North Korea as vague.

But at least one thing is clear: The situation is grave enough to grow into a major international conflict.

The Korean Peninsula has seen steady deterioration since last October, but no serious efforts have been taken to stop the process.

The Korean developments give rise to increasingly tough questions that need clear-cut answers. North Korea claims it has produced weapons-grade plutonium. The lack of intelligence makes it hard for the world community to establish whether or not North Korean representatives are bluffing when they claim to have extracted plutonium from spent nuclear fuel rods. If they mean what they say, their country is in violation of its international obligations, albeit only in the global community's eye (it will be remembered that this past January, North Korea withdrew from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty to untie its hands in developing a nuclear-weapons program.)

The international community cannot help being concerned over the possibility of North Korea using a nuclear arsenal against another nation. It probably won't be able to strike its No. 1 enemy, the United States, as it possesses no long-range delivery vehicles, and has not conducted any tests of intercontinental ballistic missiles. But it will have no problem reaching its Asian neighbours. Even if it occurs inside North Korea, a nuclear explosion would have serious repercussions not only for the Korean Peninsula, but for all adjacent countries, including Russia.

So as to pull the situation back from the brink, those involved in the standoff must immediately sit down at the negotiating table and try to reach a compromise.

Russia has offered a settlement package to the conflicting sides. North Korea says it will consider the plan if the United States does so, too. But Washington has still not given any response. We have told U.S. officials all about our latest trip to Pyongyang earlier this year, where we met with President Kim Jong-il and other top North Korean officials. But the Americans seem to believe that we are being too lenient toward North Korea.

At trilateral negotiations in Beijing in April, the Koreans submitted to the Americans an arrangement plan of their own, with many of its points borrowed from Russia's package. Yet, the U.S. leadership has not responded to this plan, either.

China's stance on Korea is pretty much the same as ours. This was confirmed by our Moscow meeting with Chinese deputy foreign minister Dai Bingguo prior to his trip to Pyongyang earlier this month. When speaking to Americans or Koreans, Chinese officials rightly point out that working out a common position is the key to success.

Today, the main obstacles to further talks on the issue are North Korea's unwillingness to have multilateral talks and the United States' refusal to speak with Pyongyang one-on-one. North Korea doesn't want other sides to get involved in the negotiating process before it clears up its relations with Washington. But the Americans insist on a multilateral scheme, citing the problem's international character.

The Bush administration hopes that the involvement of other members of the world community will help it pressure North Korea into giving up its nuclear ambitions.

As for the Chinese, they want to see the ball get rolling, in whatever format. They believe that the best option would be to continue what they started in Beijing back in April -- that is, trilateral talks among North Korea, the United States and China.

We don't want China's efforts to be undermined, and therefore we support its idea to continue with the trilateral talks without bringing in Japan, South Korea, and our own government.

Mr. Bingguo tried to sell this idea to North Korean officials during his trip to Pyongyang. He also tried to have them consider the possibility of multilateral talks (with five or six parties involved). But the North Koreans wouldn't listen.

If multilateral talks are eventually launched, Russia certainly should be among the participants. Neither the United States, nor any other country has ever spoken against our participation.

Russia is very much disturbed by the threat of a nuclear conflict on the Korean Peninsula, not least for economic reasons. Ideally, Russia could supply electricity to North Korea. But for the supplies to be paid for, an international scheme should be created. Our country also could help resolve Korea's energy problems through a cross-border gas pipeline. Other countries, however, aren't prepared for any of this in the present conditions, it seems.

Russia is also keen to develop the project that would link the trans-Korean railroad to Russia's trans-Siberian railway, thereby creating a track from the Pacific Coast through Europe. This could reduce shipment costs dramatically for everyone. Some work already has been done to handle the technical challenges of linking the two railroads together. But the project will be impossible to implement unless security is restored to the Korean Peninsula.

Russia has much to gain, or much to lose, depending on the resolution of this nuclear standoff. We hope the parties concerned will agree to come to the table soon.

Alexander Losyukov is deputy foreign minister of Russia.

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