#2 - RW 266
Vedomosti
July 22, 2003
RUSSIA AND THE UNITED STATES: REVIVAL OF PARTNERSHIP
Common threats are bridging the gap between Moscow and Washington again
Author: Alexandr Shumilin, head of the Middle East Conflicts Analysis
Center at the US and Canada Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]

A COMMON PERCEPTION OF THREATS POSED BY MIDEAST COUNTRIES, PRIMARILY THE THREAT OF TERRORISM, IS BEING REVIVED IN RUSSIA AND THE UNITED STATES. THE LATEST SUICIDE BOMBINGS IN MOSCOW HAVE FACILITATED THE PROCESS. THE NEED TO COUNTER THE THREATS IS BRIDGING THE GAP BETWEEN MOSCOW AND WASHINGTON.

At first sight, something strange is happening in Washington. President George W. Bush's approval rating is falling to an all-time low of 52%; while the president himself is building up larger campaign coffers for the 2004 election than all other nine candidates put together. Daily reports from Iraq do not stir the general public. People appears to understand the inevitability of mounting casualties (which have already exceeded the number of casualties in Operation Desert Storm in 1991) and the lack of results in the search for weapons of mass destruction. The explanations is simple: the Americans see that the world without Saddam Hussein has become a calmer place. That is why they readily believe assurances from Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who is visiting Washington, that weapons of mass destruction in Iraq will be found - and that the Iraqi dictator himself will be captured.

The Americans like the fact that the incumbent administration thinks and acts in global terms. Democrat leaders have perceived the dominant moods in society. While criticizing Bush for "minor mistakes" (the US Administration relies on dubious information in much too serious matters), the Democrats happily vote in the Congress for the act on Democracy Support in Iran and for the colossal military budget (amounting to $368 billion, it was passed unanimously). It seems that numerous international and domestic conflicts will be centered around Iran now.

An Iraq-type military operation against the Iranian regime is highly unlikely, according to most experts approached by Russian participants in a forum organized for the Atlantic Council and the United States and Canada Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences. American analysts are much more worried than politicians about what to do with "conquered Iraq" now. The problem is urgent, and viewing it as such, they readily listen to the opinions of their Russian counterparts. Among other things, the Americans want to know Russia's reaction to plans to deploy NATO and UN troops in Iraq, already voiced in the US Congress.

American experts' emphasis on the problems of Iraq rather than on globalization is understandable. Politicians demand precise advice and recommendations from experts, and demand them right now. Experts at the Center of Strategic and International Surveys, Washington, visited Iraq at the Pentagon's request in early July. Here is an excerpt from their conclusions: "Provisional government structures installed by the coalition in Iraq have found themselves in a state of social isolation aggravated by funding shortages. The US authorities should immediately initiate internationalization of the task of restoring Iraq, particularly in the light of anti-American trends in various parts of the country. The US authorities can only win over the Shiite and Sunni communities if order in Iran is restored by joint efforts. The next twelve months will decide everything." Paul Bremer, head of the provisional American administration in Iraq, suggests his own interpretation of the conclusion. He believes that all foreign units in Iraq should be commanded by American generals.

Here is a vital conclusion American experts drew: "The new challenges, financial demands, growing anti-Americanism - all this requires establishing a new coalition which will include countries and organizations that did not participate in the military coalition." Just as importantly, experts criticize the Pentagon for the use of "certain structures in which it has its own interests" in post-war restoration. Experts emphasize the necessity of a new model of deploying companies in Iraq, primarily those with previous experience there.

It isn't hard to see that Russian companies are the most experienced - and specifically LUKoil, the company with a contract for the West Kurna II deposit, which itself suffered from Saddam Hussein's wrath. Russia would only welcome this thoroughly practical approach to the processes of post-war restoration. The other day, Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov advocated a new resolution on Iraq. If Washington and London are prepared to abandon the principle of monopolistic post-war restoration of Iraq, then many countries - Russia included - will eagerly help with restoring order there.

By heeding these recommendations, the US Administration and Pentagon would pave the way for Russian-American cooperation in troublesome regions. The matter may directly concern Iran. For the time being, Washington doesn't intend to launch a military operation against the Iranian regime. Moscow is prepared for closer cooperation in order to minimize the potential threat posed by the Iranian nuclear program. After all, Moscow doesn't deny the existence of the problem. Progress made in the matter of returning spent nuclear fuel from the Bushehr nuclear power plant to Russia is vital. The situation will probably change if and when hardliners in Washington get the upper hand. They have not done so yet.

Ellen Lapeson, president of the L. Steamson Research Center - known as an ardent supporter of the military operation in Iraq - considers it "highly unlikely that the US Administration will use against Iran the methods used against Iraq." Lapeson says: "The US Administration is forced to admit that the Iranians themselves are trying to solve their problems, discussing various political methods. Unlike Iraq, where the inability of the Iraqis to handle their problems by themselves was undeniable, political changes in Iran are taking place - even though slowly and not smoothly. Moreover, they are taking a positive direction."

A common perception of threats posed by Mideast countries, primarily the threat of terrorism, is being revived in Russia and the United States. The latest terrorist attacks in Moscow by Islamic suicide bombers facilitated the process. The need to counter them is bridging the gap between Moscow and Washington. Also importantly, the energy dialogue between our countries is underway. The Americans need it in order to reduce their dependence on Saudi Arabian oil (it accounts for 20% oil used in the United States now). Moscow made the principal decision to proceed with building the Murmansk port for oil exports to the United States. Its construction is to be completed by 2007, and about 13% of the American oil consumption market will be Russia-oriented by around 2010.

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