#12 - RW 265
Trud
No. 128
July 2003
[translation from RIA Novosti for personal use only]
PROSPECTS FOR RUSSIAN-US COOPERATION
By Sergei OZNOBISHCHEV, director, Institute of Strategic Assessments

Events of the last few months give one every reason to believe that the political crisis around Iraq has become less acute. Russian-US partnership has remained intact once again. Right now, the Presidents of our two countries are trying to convince the public at large that the third attempt of establishing partner-like relations may prove successful. Incidentally, such attempts were already made under Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin during the life-time of one generation. The truth is that new attempts are both possible and necessary because all previous attempts had failed.

The crisis in our bilateral relations, whose consequences still remain to be overcome, has taught us all several important lessons, which can't be neglected in the future. Several highly important myths were dispelled.

The first myth implied that Russian-US partnership would end, if Moscow voiced a principled stand on Iraq. Many politicians in Moscow and Washington alike tried to convince us of this. However, that enthusiastic readiness to continue our bilateral partnership (a readiness, which virtually resembles some kind of bravado) that was displayed at top-level Russian-US talks after the Iraqi war shows that the sides are ready to launch the second round of the third partnership stage. Among other things, this can be explained by the fact that the United States perceives Russia as an extremely important element of ensuring global stability, as well as US national security, in conditions of rampant terrorism. Consequently, Washington doesn't deem it possible to merely scale down the level of its relations with Moscow.

The second myth had it that various problems of global and regional security could be solved without international organizations, i.e. the UN and others. Still it turns out that not everything works out the way it should. The US side is now forced to once again discuss the Iraqi situation under UN auspices; moreover, Iraqi problems have to be tackled by the entire international community.

The myth concerning the reality of the unipolar world and the possibility of unilateral leadership was shattered, as well. In the long run, Washington proved unable to cope with the Iraqi situation all on its own. The United States failed to enhance its influence; moreover, a serious split took place in the Western world, i.e. among America's traditional, faithful and most powerful allies. At any rate, the US Administration understands perfectly well that new European countries, which are only joining the European Union at this stage, and which are trying at all costs to please Washington, will in the near future serve only as a source of permanent concerns for Europe and the United States alike.

Despite optimistic forecasts, "the short and victorious" Iraqi war has aggravated negative US economic trends still further, causing the dollar to plunge all the same. Looks like, Washington is unlikely to repeat an Iraqi-style scenario anywhere else in the world before the 2004 presidential elections, as it heeds domestic-policy considerations.

Unfortunately, the United States and Russia have so far accumulated too little positive capital, and it would be quite sad, if we lost that capital. The recent crisis and other alarming trends in our relations are a serious indicator of the fact that bilateral, albeit extremely warm-hearted, meetings are obviously not enough today. Russian-US partnership resembles an inverted pyramid nowadays. Declarations are its upper section; meanwhile real-life deeds are still located at the bottom. However, this pyramid, which can't remain stable, must be positioned correctly, resting on a solid foundation of many joint projects and real-life deeds. We've got to do this without delay because the entire present-day partnership construction might otherwise fall apart, the way it did in the late 1990s.

It is to be hoped that recent developments will induce us not to repeat previous mistakes. There exists the required foundation for doing this; as I see it, this doesn't merely amount to the Russian President's desire not to lose our partner-like interaction with the United States. The Kremlin also understands only too well that Russia would find it pretty hard to occupy and retain worthy positions in the modern world, unless it teams up with America, which boasts a tremendous political, technological and financial potential.

It seems that the US side is also beginning to think reasonably, as it comprehends the fact that it would be very hard, if not impossible, to shield the United States against terrorism without Russia. Washington perceives this problem as extremely important.

Our two nations will elect their respective presidents once again in a not so distant future. If elected, the incumbent Presidents will have to reaffirm the essence of bilateral relations and the level of Russian-US dialogue for the next four-year period. Meanwhile one gets the impression that both Vladimir Putin and George Bush Jr. will be re-elected.

The history of Moscow's relations with Republican Presidents prompts one to say that more favorable conditions for serious and positive changes in bilateral relations emerge during their second term. One would like to believe that the same thing will also happen this time.

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