#10 - RW 262
BBC Monitoring
Russia could be moderating influence on US attitude to North Korea - paper
Source: Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Moscow, in Russian 18 Jun 03

The situation on the Korean Peninsula remains the focus of heightened attention for international players. Yesterday the topic was discussed at the ASEAN forum in Phnom Penh and previously - in various combinations - in St Petersburg and Evian.

The positions espoused by Russia and the United States are close - as demonstrated in particular by the conversation in St Petersburg between Vladimir Putin and George Bush. They confirmed their mutual inclination for cooperation based on the rejection of a nuclear North Korea as well as their understanding that the problem must be resolved peacefully. In turn, PRC leader Hu Jintao conveyed to the US president the DPRK's willingness to take part in multilateral talks provided that a series of bilateral official meetings is organized without fail. So far Bush has only agreed to the "multilateral approach".

Russia, however, has not been invited to these talks - it is a question of a five-party meeting in which the DPRK, United States and PRC, which began

negotiations in Beijing in April, would be joined by Japan and South Korea. Meanwhile Moscow, for its part, has stated its readiness not only to take part in the "multilateral approach" but even to host the meeting (which seems preferable to Pyongyang). Moscow is convinced that nothing worthwhile will be agreed with the North Koreans without its participation as has already happened on several occasions.

The point is that Russia, which has no egoistic interests on the Korean Peninsula and currently possesses unique political capital in the eyes of the North Koreans thanks to Putin's trusting relationship with Kim Jong-il, could act as an impartial arbiter and ensure a fair - and thus long-term - solution. Attempts to exclude Moscow are foolish and short-sighted primarily from the point of view of the Americans' long-term interests. Not to mention the other parties to the Korean settlement. This is obvious if only because one consequence of the dissonance in the leading powers' actions will be to broaden the North Koreans' freedom of manoeuvre, which is precisely what the United States is afraid of.

Right now Washington wants to combine dialogue and pressure on Pyongyang (with preference being publicly given to the latter) and may believe that since Moscow is reluctant to take part in the "united front" of this pressure, it is better to keep it out of the matter. However, so far a final prescription as to what to do with the DPRK has not yet been worked out. Currently people in Washington who favour a strong-arm solution to the North Korean nuclear problem seem to have maintained the equilibrium of their position with those who are committed to the idea of negotiations. In other words despite the US political leadership's fully-articulated desire to work if not towards a military solution then at least towards blockading and suffocating North Korea, in practice this may take the form of nothing more than an increase in psychological pressure.

To all appearances, the game of good cop-bad cop in relation to North Korea, which is what various forces within the US Administration are playing, will continue in the near future. However, the key question remains open: Which remedy will the White House ultimately prescribe - "crushing" the DPRK or making peace with it?

Under pressure from Washington the Japanese and the South Koreans are inclined to be increasingly tough on Pyongyang, attempting not to think about the fact that this may bring about a "hot" conflict. They seem to be allowing themselves to be persuaded by the US hawks that ultimately the Pyongyang regime will collapse safely on its own. The role played by Russia and China, which assess the situation more pragmatically, is all the more important . Russia is currently by no means fighting for a place at the negotiating table in an effort to confirm its great-power status. It is a question of ensuring that these talks aim to achieve a real compromise package and do not provide "diplomatic cover" for preparations for regime change and the bringing down of the North Korean state system, which people in Washington have begun to discuss openly with increasing frequency of late. Moscow, which takes a sober view of the situation, is convinced that the implementation of such objectives is only achievable in the event of military action against the DPRK with all the fatal (for the Korean peninsula), extremely dangerous and unpredictable (primarily for neighbouring states) consequences which that may entail. Hardly anyone can say that this matter does not concern Russia.

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