St. Petersburg is now celebrating its 300th anniversary. The city's anniversary is being used to advertise Russia and its northern capital rather actively all over the world. Moreover, this festival presents a unique opportunity for holding a short summit that will involve President Vladimir Putin of the Russian Federation and the leaders of the world's major countries. The need for such summits became obvious after the Iraqi war. The Russian leadership's peace-making efforts proved fruitless; moreover, the Kremlin's hopes about a protracted Iraqi war didn't come true. Consequently, Moscow became somewhat confused about subsequent developments. It now has to find friends in a rapidly changing new world, which is now dominated by only one superpower - the United States.

It's crystal clear that Russia should mend its relations with the United States, despite all grudges. Any possible Russian-US confrontation would spell nothing good for Russia. Quite possibly, even hard-liners inside Moscow's corridors of power are beginning to comprehend this factor nowadays. However, the Kremlin did learn the Iraqi war's lessons, deciding to modernize Russia's Armed Forces on a grand scale. Washington, which is now disappointed with its Russian partners, knows only too well that the fight against trans-national terrorism would not end soon enough. Moreover, the US Administration believes that Russia, which is a sizeable component of the international- security system, might yet come in handy.

Both sides are contacting each other on a regular basis; moreover, they manage to find common ground on the Iraqi-debt issue. Still what will become the foundation of subsequent cooperation? Well, this is the most important question of them all. Many people believe that such cooperation used to develop on the rather narrow basis of personal contacts between Russian and US leaders. Rampant terrorism in different parts of the world, sort of, provides new impulses for Russian-US interaction during the struggle against this new global threat.

The Kremlin has repeatedly sent out clear-cut messages on this score to the White House. For example, analysts draw attention to the fact that in his annual state-of-the-nation address Putin listed specific goals, i.e. the struggle against international terrorism and efforts to counter the proliferation of mass-destruction weapons, as priority issues of our foreign policy. Incidentally, the US Administration also perceives these goals as its top-priority tasks. Consequently, various short-term prospects are manifesting themselves. And what lies ahead?

The recent Iraqi war has already revealed that cooperation on the basis of anti-terrorist operations and efforts to check the spread of mass-destruction weapons depends on the interpretation of these threats to an extremely great extent. Moscow believed that Iraq lacked any mass-destruction weapons of its own. Meanwhile Washington is sure that Baghdad did have such weapons, promising to provide evidence of that fact. Russia still believes that one should look for terrorists in the Persian Gulf region. However, the United States claims that Osama bin Laden's cronies are now hiding on the territory of Iran, which is Russia's important economic partner. Therefore one can safely say that the agenda of Russian-US relations has to be expanded; still it's unclear how the sides can accomplish this objective.

Chances are that the Kremlin will try and compensate its erratic relations with the White House, expanding Russian- European cooperation instead. Still how can this be done? Berlin, Paris or any other European capital, which are openly dissatisfied over some aspects of trans-Atlantic cooperation, are in no mood to join hands with Russia against the United States. Europe, which would be quite eager to suggest a new non-military model of international relations, lacks any ideas for translating this model into life. Well, the same can be said about Moscow.

As far as Russian-European economic cooperation is concerned, the sides are becoming divided on an increasingly greater number of issues. Brussels bureaucrats don't want to assess the Russian situation and to recognize this country's specifics, as well. They still think that Russia is not ready to join the World Trade Organization at this stage.

Moscow is already beginning to count its losses that will be incurred, after Eastern and Central Europe joins the European Union. Russia will have to pay more for its fuel-and-energy transits via regional countries. Moreover, all trade operations between Russia and its former socialist-camp allies will have to abide by EU regulations, with all the ensuing consequences.

Russia still has a rather unimpressive economic potential, as far as international standards are concerned. Therefore Moscow has to find certain contradictions and discrepancies in international relations, also taking advantage of these aspects. Russia should act as someone's ally or mediator, thus increasing its overall political weight. Looks like, this game will continue during the St. Petersburg summit's talks. Favourable conditions for such a game will obviously be created in the sphere of economic relations, if not in the international-security field. Most importantly, tactical games should not overshadow the future. Russia's foreign-policy goals should not be lost somewhere in time and space.

CDI Russia Weekly #259 ~ Contents  •  Next