#7
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
April 30, 2003
RUSSIA USING THE UNITED STATES AS A BUFFER IN CENTRAL ASIA
Russia is unlikely to retain its influence in Central Asia
Author: not indicated
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]

IF AMERICA GAINS CONTROL OF CENTRAL ASIAN STATES, THEY COULD BECOME A BUFFER FOR RUSSIA AGAINST AGGRESSIVE ISLAMIC EXTREMISM. IT IS TO RUSSIA'S ADVANTAGE TO HAVE THE US ENGAGED IN CENTRAL ASIA, SINCE THE US WILL BE SPENDING ITS RESOURCES, AND PERHAPS EVEN TURNING CENTRAL ASIA ANTI-AMERICAN.

Russia is certainly losing its influence in Central Asia, say experts analyzing the situation in the region. With the end of the Iraqi war, the pro-American sentiments in Central Asia are only gaining strength. Following its victory over Saddam Hussein's regime, the US has become more active in the region, confirming its readiness to expand military cooperation with Uzbekistan. Moscow has still been attempting to return these states into its area of influence, as shown by the "Slavic-Kazakhstan union of the four" which the Kremlin has contrived lately, and the Turkmen president's visit to Moscow, and, finally, the recent Dushanbe summit of Collective Security Treaty member states. What could these steps entail? Experts answer this question.

Viktor Kremenyuk, deputy director of the Institute of US and Canadian Studies:

Strictly speaking, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan escaped from Russia's control during the disintegration of the Soviet Union and formation of the CIS. Undoubtedly, Russia has since been attempting to retain its influence there. However, neither then nor now has this policy been backed by real and impressive material resources; therefore, it has been doomed to failure. The US is the center of influence which may give these resources to the countries of the region - in exchange for their loyalty, of course.

Russia must first determine for itself how dangerous America's penetration into Central Asia is; is Washington willing to oust Moscow from its formerly absolute sphere of influence or could this be Washington's response to the fact that these countries may become easy victims of propagation of Islamic fundamentalism and a source of international terrorism? Russia must decide either to take countermeasures or, vice versa, trying to act jointly with Washington considering the US as its strategic partner. The latter would be much more preferable for the Kremlin. Many, however, tend to view America's actions in Central Asia as a policy aimed against Russia's interests. At the same time, nobody has yet explained in Russia what Russia's real interests are related to. If Russian keeps maintaining the same positions, Russian and U.S. interests in Central Asia will come into collision sooner or later, which promises Russia nothing good. Therefore, we need to change our tone in our dialogs with the US related to this problem. We need to be vi Central Asia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran are included. Otherwise, both Russia and the US will face a joint problem - proliferation of the Islamic fundamentalism.

Vyacheslav Igrunov, deputy chairman of the Duma committee for CIS affairs:

I don't think the process of extinguishing Russia's influence in Central Asia is irreversible. Expanding into Asia, the United States will encounter some obstacles. Russia may retain its influence in Central Asia only if it strictly determines whose side it does support - either the "imperial center" represented by the US or the countries which are balancing the global situation. It seems to me that Russia should be an active component in the second pole, which requires developing relations with both China and European states.

At the same time, it is undeniably true that Russia is too weak nowadays to change the global situation. On the other hand, for Central Asia the United States is "a bird in the bush". America is causing some apprehensions in Central Asian states which may prefer to negotiate with Russia. However, Russia must be concerned for the creation of mutual interests: the greater the sense of this, in contrast to Russia's unilateral contacts with each of the aforementioned countries, the more Russia's benefit in the region will be.

Dmitry Oreshkin, head of the Merkator analytical group at the Institute of Geography:

Russia has lost a great deal in Central Asia, and got just what it deserved. After disintegration of the Soviet Union, we have five more or less authoritarian-totalitarian regimes in the region - from the moderately authoritarian Akayev to extremely authoritarian Niyazov. We are yet trying to make out whether they are with us or against us, although it's quite clear that they are not with us for a long time and are tending to approach with America. Elites of these countries are sending their children to study to Cambridge and Oxford, rather than Moscow or St. Petersburg. Russia's only serious deed is that it has been trying to settle Russian diaspora abroad. The very 25 million of Russians, whom the Communists are often recalling, are specially held there. Since Yeltsin's epoch, Moscow is viewing them as "bridgeheads" for restoring its influence, not realizing that the diasporas have decreased in number. The US's policy in relation to the former republic of Central Asia is reasonable enough. It is not trying to hold the situation under implicit control, being satisfied with the control over the political elite and leaving these states the right for their own ideology.

Under these circumstances, Russia can offer nothing rational to oppose to the US. If Russia realizes that and "leave" the Central Asian "five in peace," this will enable to catch our breath and handle our own problems.

If America gains control of Central Asian states, they could become a buffer for Russia against aggressive Islamic extremism. The deeper America is entangled in Central Asia, the better it is for Russia, since the United States will be spending its resources. It may even be that the anti-Russian sentiments in Central Asia will gradually turn into anti-American sentiments...

(Translated by Andrei Ryabochkin)

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