#9
Trud
No. 74
April 2003
[translation from RIA Novosti for personal use only]
ANOTHER IRAQ WOULD BE FRAUGHT WITH THE COLLAPSE OF THE SYSTEM OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
By Sergei OZNOBISHCHEV, Director of the Institute of Strategic Assessments

In the days of the US-British victory, it is appropriate to remind that the aim of military actions against Hussein was the search for mass destruction weapons which this regime allegedly hides in its territory and skillfully conceals from international inspections. Iraq has been seized, but no lethal weapons have been found. It becomes unclear who misled the international community - dictator Saddam Hussein or politician Colin Powell, who demonstrated in the UN Security Council a test-tube with white powdery substance and the blueprints of special vehicles and labs for the production of chemical and bacteriological weapons allegedly deployed in Iraq?

It turns out that the main aim of the military campaign has not been achieved, the lethal weapon has not been found. However, it seems that no one in Washington is concerned about this, because the real aim lay somewhere else. Maybe, in "taking revenge" for the humiliation of America, the superpower on September 11, 2001?

The only way to prevent the further escalation of "the counter-measures" of the USA is returning control of the situation into the hands of the international community. Now that the Iraqi military campaign is practically over, the so-called anti-terrorist coalition, which emerged after September 11, is becoming more and more virtual, while the actions of the countries, including the closest US allies, that disagree with the course of the Bush administration, are becoming, on the contrary, more and more coordinated.

The European Union, during the latest summit in Athens, included in the jointly adopted declaration the words about the resolve "to uncompromisingly contribute to strengthening the institutions of global administration and expanding the sphere of international law" and in connection with this, assured the UN of its support for this organization's activity and efforts "to ensure international legality and global responsibility." This is a resolute and unambiguous statement.

The White House occupant is not yet quite well aware of the dependence of the USA on the whole complex of the established norms and procedures of international relations, including of a legal nature. Thus, in order to increase the supplies of Iraqi oil, the relevant UN resolution - "oil for food," which sets quotas for oil supplies to the world market from this country - needs to be revised and put to vote again.

The USA will hardly risk to continue acting in circumvention of the UN, which would mean turning itself into "a rogue state." Hence, it will have to respect the "conventionalities" which are called international law and international institutions.

Incidentally, I would like to remind those in our country and elsewhere who are pessimistic over the future policy of Washington that the next presidential elections are not far off in this democratic country. The so-called political-academic community of the USA, which has been traditionally supplying personnel to the executive posts, is now shocked by the actions of the head of the executive branch of authority and his entourage.

However, while the opinion of the political elite could be ignored for the time being, the opinion of the public, which has sobered up after the euphoria of victory, will in the near future have to be increasingly considered. This means that the current administration is to concentrate on such boring things as streamlining the economy, which, just like the US dollar, is in poor shape now. The circumstances dictate the USA the need to deal with purely internal problems, rather than rout yet another unwanted regime or start building democracy there.

Meanwhile, it seems that the international community begins to analyze its mistakes, realizing that another Iraq would be fraught with the collapse of the system of international relations which could never be returned into a normal, civilized channel.

There is a clear understanding that if the scenario of the Iraqi war is repeated, the partnership of western countries and the USA would be undermined for years. It would hardly be possible for Russia, too, to continue building with the USA the relations of this kind. This means that while accepting with regret "the new reality" engendered by the unilateral actions of Washington, we can and must move further only in one direction - by taking resolute and responsible joint actions, to try to rule out the very possibility of the repetition of the Iraqi scenario.

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