#5
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
April 18, 2003
NO VENGEANCE THREATENING RUSSIA
Leading analysts comment on the war's consequences for Russia
Author: Andrei Terekhov, Dmitry Suslov
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]

THE WAR IN IRAQ IS THOUGHT TO BE OVER, BUT THE CONSEQUENCES IT MAY STILL HAVE ARE CONCERNING EXPERTS AROUND THE WORLD. SOME OF THEM SHARE THEIR VIEWS OF THE WAR'S POSSIBLE IMPACT ON RUSSIA. NONE OF THE FORECASTS SEEM TO BE VERY OPTIMISTIC.

What consequences will the war in Iraq have for Russia? A number of analysts respond to this question.

JAMES G. SHERR, SENIOR ANALYST, CONFLICT STUDIES RESEARCH CENTER, ROYAL MILITARY ACADEMY, SANDHURST, OXFORD:

The game is not yet over for Russia. The scenario on which Putin and his advisers were betting - with equal parts of good grounds and recklessness, even imprudence - has clearly fallen through. However, the power of Russian politics, as well as Russian political culture, lies in the fact that it constantly exists in contradictory circumstances, as well as in its ability to exploit these contradictions. Now, as in the past, this quality of Russia's will most likely help it gain some short-term victories, but it will strike at its long-term strategic and economic interests just as much. These interests primarily require Moscow to act in a way which is unfamiliar and difficult for it to do: making a real choice.

DIMITRI K. SIMES, PRESIDENT OF THE NIXON CENTER, WASHINGTON:

The Bush administration and Putin's government have so far succeeded in permitting themselves to differ on Iraq without causing significant damage to their relations in general. In that respect, the recent report that Putin sent Primakov to Iraq in order to persuade Saddam Hussein to step down can only be useful. Yet some problems still remain.

Firstly, it is claimed that Russia and the Iraqi regime had maintained some very diverse forms of cooperation. Reliable confirmation of that would arouse new anti-Russian sentiments, and prompt Congress to be tougher on Moscow. Secondly, and even more importantly, there is the problem of rebuilding Iraq. I am concerned about the assertion that Russia will immediately decline America's proposals, allegedly because no special role is reserved for it - in order to subsequently complain that its interests were ignored. Finally, there is also the issue of new cooperation between Russia, France, and Germany. If there is any impression that this goes beyone Iraq, and its fundamental goal is to take the US down a peg - that can do a great deal of harm to the prospects for American-Russian partnership.

Thus, the question of what the overthrow of Saddam Hussein's regime will entail for Russia actually depends on the complex but necessary political choice Moscow will make.

ARNAUD DUBIEN, CHIEF RESEARCH OFFICER, INTERNATIONAL AND STRATEGIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE, PARIS:

In my view, it is still too early to sum up the final results of the war in Iraq. Now that the initial, military phase of the campaign is over, the second phase is starting - the reconstruction of Iraq. Only after Russia's role in this reconstruction stage becomes clear will it be possible to draw any specific conclusions. Then it will be possible to determine to what extent Russia's relations with America have or have not been damaged.

ALEXANDER RAHR, DIRECTOR OF THE CONTACT CENTER RUSSIA/CIS RELATIONS, GERMAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS, BERLIN:

The greatest achievement of Russia and President Vladimir Putin personally lies in the fact that unlike during the war in Kosovo four years ago, this time Moscow has not become involved in pro-war or anti-war rhetoric. From the diplomatic point of view, Putin has managed to ensure that Russia did not lose out due to this war, as it still retains room for maneuver in the process of building the new world order - whether in the direction of America or of Old Europe. This is precisely the main outcome of the war in Iraq for Russia.

ANATOL LIEVEN, SENIOR ASSOCIATE, CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE:

As everyone knows, Condoleezza Rice said that America's global strategy should now include humiliating France and ignoring Germany, while at the same time flattering Russia. In Washington, there is an understanding that the current administration has structured relations with Moscow very poorly. Thus, I do not expect that Russia will lose out from the very start due to any vengeance on the part of the US for the stance Russia took on the war in Iraq.

However, there is another reason why Washington would like to "promote" the Russian direction, and this reason is very dangerous: the US will now focus its attention on Iran. Washington will try to prevent Iran from producing nuclear weapons by putting pressure on its suppliers, and Russia is the most important of those. This will lead to Russia being inundated with a mixture of bribes and threats aimed at destroying its relationship with Iran. For the Russian leadership this will create a very serious problem, which will become one of the main challenges for Moscow in the wake of the war in Iraq.

(Translated by P. Pikhnovsky)

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