#12
Vremya Novostei
April 3, 2003
THE HOUR OF THE HAWK
Attempts to make Putin boost defense spending
Pressure to raise defense spending to 3.5% of the GDP
Author: Nikolai Poroskov
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]

THE PRESIDENT AND HIS ADMINISTRATION HAVE BEEN UNDER UNPRECEDENTED PRESSURE FROM "ADVOCATES OF A STRONG RUSSIA" SINCE THE START OF THE WAR IN IRAQ. PUTIN HAS ALREADY BEEN ASKED TO CONSIDER RAISING DEFENSE SPENDING FROM 2.64% TO 3.5% OF THE GDP, OR 600 BILLION RUBLES IN 2004.

"Russia doesn't want the United States defeated, for political and economic reasons," President Vladimir Putin said in Tambov - adding, however, that Moscow wanted the issue of Iraq returned to UN jurisdiction as soon as possible. Needless to say, the United States will not be defeated in the war. Yet in making the statement, Putin sent a clear message to the United States and Russia itself, where anti-American sentiments have increased everywhere, including within the military elite and political establishment.

In the meantime, the war in Iraq is making Russia take a closer look at its own armed forces. It doesn't really matter that some retired generals are predicting Russia will be the next target of "American aggression". Even the hawks, of whom there are many in the corridors of power, do not take this threat seriously.

Much more dangerous is the fact that Third World nations, alarmed by escalation of hostilities in the Persian Gulf, are doing all they can to obtain nuclear weapons. They view nuclear weapons as a guarantee against any attack from abroad. North Korea is setting the example. Russian intelligence - military and political alike - has already reported international contacts in this sphere. And accidental launches are possible in countries that have only just obtained nuclear weapons. On the one hand, this is another argument for cooperation with the United States in maintaining security. On the other, this is a new rationale for improving Russia's own national defense.

Combat readiness and morale in the Russian Armed Forces leave much to be desired, to put it mildly. According to a recent poll in the Army and Navy done by the Main Directorate for Educational Work of the Defense Ministry, the overwhelming majority of conscripts do not view their involvement in defending the Motherland, or military honor, as really important. Military pollsters attribute this situation to a lack of effective preparation and conditioning of young men. They even draw analogies, saying that if the Iraqi army had been in a similar condition, coalition forces would have been in Baghdad by the third day of the operation.

According to sources close to military circles, the president and his administration have been under unprecedented pressure from "advocates of a strong Russia" since the start of the war in Iraq. Putin has already been asked to consider raising defense spending from 2.64% to 3.5% of the GDP: the idea recently promoted by Andrei Nikolayev of the Duma Defense Committee. The figure (3.5% of the GDP for national defense) has been discussed for a long time, but the ranks of its supporters may swell now. The doves have been arguing over how the budget surplus and financial reserves should be used (stored in the stabilization fund, or spent on tax cuts); but now the hawks are bound to intervene in the debate. Since there is an unexpected windfall in the form of high oil revenues, this should be spent on national defense without endangering the rest of the nation's finances. That will be their major argument.

If raised to the above-mentioned level, the 2004 military budget may amount to almost 600 billion rubles. Nikolayev says this would be enough for combat and operational training. Moreover, this budget would enable the Defense Ministry to increase spending on research by 250%, and triple current spending on acquisition of new military hardware, and double social spending.

Moreover, some additional sums are expected to rebuild the Moscow regional missile defense system.

Some experts believe that Russia's financial pendulum may once again swing in the direction of strategic nuclear forces. When the United States quit the ABM Treaty of 1972, Russian leaders promised to redeploy RS-20 (SS-18 Satan) and rail-based missile systems. Unfortunately, this particular measure will be effective only in the space of several years. Deploying Topol-Ms is much more promising, but assembling the systems is much too slow.

Aware of the need to keep professionals in the armed forces, some Duma members (former officers themselves) are raising the matter of restoring privileges which the military enjoyed until last year. Duma members are also talking about the need to abolish the majority of conscription deferment reasons.

Basic military training in secondary schools was discontinued in the early 1990s. The subject is about to return to the curriculum again. It is just a matter of time.

Final decisions have not been made yet. It is clear, however, that the war in Iraq is playing into the hands of those who believe that a "strong Russia" with its own independent policy primarily requires a "strong army".

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