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Russia takes lead in voicing world anger over Iraq: analysts
March 27, 2003
AFP

Russia has taken the lead, ahead of France and Germany, in voicing world opposition to the week-old US-led war in Iraq, preferring to risk US anger rather than be seen backing down, analysts said Thursday.

The hardening of Moscow's stance since the outbreak of hostilities, forcefully expressed by Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov in his address to the Russian senate on Wednesday, has been encouraged by US military setbacks, Yevgeny Volk of the Heritage Foundation said.

"With the US victory put back to some indeterminate, future date, the stiffer tone is a means of strengthening the Russian position towards the United States," Volk commented.

"Calling for the issue to be returned to the UN Security Council highlights the importance of Russia's peace-making role and brings pressure to bear on the US, notably in regard to an eventual Russian role in postwar reconstruction," he said.

In blunt language Ivanov described the US-led invasion as "illegal and doomed to failure" and said the war was "not about democratising Iraq but about the total destruction of the country."

His criticisms contrasted with the relatively muted tones currently heard in Paris, which had previously borne the brunt of US wrath for its opposition to a UN Security Council resolution that would have authorised the attack on Iraq.

Ilya Fabrichnikov, of the Political Research Centre, noted that Russia's position had not changed particularly since the start of the conflict, saying: "It is more a case of France and Germany toning down their opposition somewhat."

Russia is now "the main spokesman for the majority of people and countries that are opposed to the war, and it is important for Russian prestige not to change its position," he said.

Volk believed it unlikely the current Russia-US tension over Iraq would lead to a major confrontation.

"The foreign ministry has no interest in things going that far," he stressed, noting that Russia has seen no large-scale popular demonstrations on a par with those seen elsewhere in Europe, "although the Kremlin has experience in organising such things."

Alexei Malashenko of the Carnegie Moscow Centre agreed that there "will be some tension in Russia-US relations, but no major conflict."

In the stand-off over Iraq "Russia has been in fine form," he noted. "It's running ahead of the train, overtaking France and Germany who have lowered the tone in their recent statements."

However the Russian parliament was "idiotic to refuse to ratify the strategic disarmament treaty, as we need it more than the United States does," he warned.

Ivanov Wednesday approved parliament's decision, saying Russia should not ratify the Moscow treaty -- providing for a two-thirds reduction in Russian and US offensive stockpiles -- until the two sides resolved their differences over the war in Iraq.

The media Thursday voiced concern at the growing gulf between the Russian and US positions over Iraq.

"Russia has overtaken France and Germany in its anti-war rhetoric and risks being isolated," the Nezavisimaya Gazeta said.

For the daily Vremya Novostei, "Russia will find it difficult to conduct a policy of strategic partnership with Washington in the climate of mounting anti-US sentiment" -- a reference to the general hostility to the US-led campaign in Iraq, where according to a recent poll three Russians out of four would prefer to see Iraq win.

A senior US diplomat in Moscow, however, downplayed the long-term consequences of the rift.

"I think that we're trying to contain the damage, manage the disagreement and get through this," the envoy said.

President Vladimir Putin is "very pragmatic, (and) the Russians realise they have bigger equities in preserving cooperation with the US and the West more generally," he said.

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