#5
RFE/RL Newsline
March 20, 2003
DEPUTY DUMA SPEAKER URGES CALM RESPONSE TO IRAQ HOSTILITIES

Vladimir Lukin (Yabloko) said the Kremlin should maintain a "cold-blooded" position regarding the military operation against the regime of Iraqi President Hussein, taking into account that the fighting poses no immediate threat to Russian security and that Russia has very limited prospects of influencing events at this stage, RTR and ORT reported on 20 March. He urged the Kremlin to take advantage of the U.S. preoccupation with the military operation to boost ties with countries that share Moscow's opposition to the war in Iraq. Lukin added that the outbreak of hostilities does not mark the demise of the United Nations, but could lead to a diminished role for it. He urged Moscow to work to restore the UN's importance. "I foresee that the fruits of this war will not be so sweet for the United States," he added, noting that the conflict could produce conflicts between the United States and its allies, as well as domestic political and economic difficulties. VY

LEADING ECONOMIST PREDICTS STABILIZATION OF OIL PRICES...

Leonid Grigorev, director of Moscow-based Expert Institute and formerly World Bank director from Russia, said that the war in Iraq will alter the nature of the global economy, RTR reported on 20 March. He said that he does not believe, as many analysts do, that world oil prices will fall to $12-$14 a barrel. This would not be in the interests of the OPEC countries or of consumers, because if the price falls too low, the incentive to conserve energy will be undermined. Grigorev said that prices should stabilize at about $20 a barrel, which is the optimal price for both the United States and OPEC and will help maintain global economic and political equilibrium. VY ...AS RUSSIAN COMPANIES WRITE OFF THEIR ASSETS IN IRAQ

Russian businessmen who left Iraq in recent days handed over their assets to members of the Iraqi regime and have no hope that they will ever recover them, strana.ru reported on 19 March. Representatives of LUKoil, Zarubezhneft, and Mashinoimport -- which have the largest presences in Iraq -- have written off their losses and said that although their property in Iraq is partially insured, it will be extremely difficult to collect damages if the regime in Baghdad is changed. VY

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