#12
Izvestia
March 20, 2003
DEGREE OF INFLUENCE
The Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty will not be ratified this week
Author: Andrei Lebedev
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]

THE DUMA COUNCIL HAS DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE RATIFICATION OF THE RUSSIA-US STRATEGIC OFFENSIVE REDUCTIONS TREATY ON THE AGENDA FOR THE DUMA PLENARY SESSION ON MARCH 21, ALTHOUGH THIS HAD BEEN PLANNED EARLIER. THE POLITICAL EXPEDIENCY OF THIS MOVE IS NOW BEING QUESTIONED.

On Tuesday, the Duma Council decided not to include ratification of the Russia-US Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty on the agenda for the Duma plenary session on March 21, although this had been planned earlier. The political expediency of this move was questioned on the same day.

According to Sergei Shishkarev, deputy chairman of the Duma international affairs committee, the decision is aimed at exerting "a certain degree" of influence on the development of the conflict over Iraq. The question of how great this "degree of influence" might be was immediately indicated by differences of opinion in Russian political circles.

Duma Speaker Gennady Seleznev did not rule out that ratification may be postponed for "a fairly long time"; he even declared that "in the event of an American strike on Iraq, the fate of this treaty would be in doubt".

Mikhail Margelov, chairman of the Federation Council international affairs committee, was harshly critical of the Duma Council's decision: he described it as dictated by "election campaign considerations rather than the interests of the state".

Dmitrii Rogozin, head of the Duma international affairs committee, who withdrew his recommendation to discuss the ratification issue yesterday, clarifies the committee's position.

Question: Only four days ago, you recommended ratifying the treaty.

Dmitrii Rogozin: The ultimatum for Baghdad was declared on Monday night. From the deadlines indicated in that ultimatum, we may infer that the military intervention in Iraq is very likely to begin on March 21. It's hard to imagine our parliament debating a bilateral agreement with the United States under those circumstances.

Question: Did you discuss this issue with the Foreign Ministry?

Dmitrii Rogozin: We notified the ministry. We have a close and constructive working relationship with the Foreign Ministry, but the committee makes its decisions entirely independently.

Question: Is your decision intended to have any real influence on the Iraq situation, or is it only a demonstrative act?

Dmitrii Rogozin: The decision we have made is not a demarche. Going ahead with ratification now would mean sending an inappropriate political signal. The treaty is connected with nuclear deterrence issues; debating it while the United States is at war with another state might be interpreted by unscrupulous politicians as virtually showing indirect support for the actions of the United States.

Alexander Kotenkov, the president's representative in the Duma, described the decision as a mistake. "It was no coincidence that the president insisted on this treaty being ratified on March 21," Kotenkov commented; but he did not explain why.

(Translated by P. Pikhnovsky)

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