#6
Argumenty i Fakty
No. 11
March 2003
[translation from RIA Novosti for personal use only]
IRAQI WAR CAN TRIGGER OFF NUCLEAR MILITARIZATION
By Andrei KOKOSHIN, director, Institute of International
Security Problems (Russian Academy of Sciences), State Duma member

The world is now waiting for the United States to attack Iraq. Russia is trying hard to prevent this war in line with its own national-security interests. It would be no exaggeration to say that we are now living through one of history's most dramatic periods. The world is approaching a boundary, which conceals a Pandora's box of political, military and economic instability.

The United States wants to teach Saddam Hussein a lesson; in this connection, one can safely say that quite a few countries will be compelled to expand their own military potential after this war. North Korea is already implementing a fast-paced nuclear program and developing ballistic missiles of its own.

High Tension Arc

North Korea will apparently test its nuclear bomb, the way India and Pakistan did five years ago, thus convincing theoretical enemies that its intentions are quite serious. Happily enough, Russia maintains friendly relations with North Korea; this is seen as Vladimir Putin's impressive achievement. However, chances for a Far Eastern military conflict would increase greatly, if Pyongyang does test a nuclear bomb. Consequently, Washington might use sub-kiloton and deep-impact nuclear warheads for hitting North Korean missile launchers. Even their limited use would cause radioactive fall-out, including on Russian territory.

This scenario worries Russia, China and Japan. China became a nuclear power in 1964; meanwhile Japan might also decide to follow suit. Few Russians paid attention to the fact that the Japanese Cabinet's General Secretary said last year that it was high time for Japan to think about its own nuclear bomb. Not a single Tokyo official rebuked him for making this statement.

Japan, which boasts an advanced nuclear industry and more sophisticated nuclear technologies than Pyongyang does, can develop its own nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles in just a few months or weeks. Looks like, Japan is sick and tired of its complete military dependence on the United States. Just like all Oriental nations, the Japanese forget no insults whatsoever; they also remember the horrors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki perfectly well. Therefore Russia might eventually face a nuclear Japan; it should be mentioned in this connection that Russia and Japan, which are divided on the South Kurile issue, have so far failed to sign a peace treaty.

Most likely, Iran is yet another threshold country, which ranks among other axis-of-evil states. On the whole, Russia maintains a good relationship with Iran; however, our countries are still wrangling over the Caspian issue. Iran's nuclear militarization won't help settle this dispute in any way.

In my opinion, some of the Persian Gulf region's Arab countries will also announce their desire to go nuclear. Barring these countries, one can say that a veritable nuclear arc comprising Japan, North Korea, China, India, Pakistan, Iran and Israel will emerge along the external Russian perimeter. Israel is making no bones about the fact that it wants to defend itself, no matter what. According to one Israeli politician, Egypt's Aswan dam would be busted by nuclear warheads, if Islamists take over there, and if they try to unleash another war against Israel.

The Moslem world's radicalization would become yet another highly dangerous consequence of the war against Iraq. One has every reason to say that all-out terrorist attacks will take place in Israel, the United States and Washington's allies.

The United States Is Playing with Fire

Among other things, this serves to explain France's concerns. You see, France has a multi-million Moslem population. France would undermine its own domestic stability, if it sides with the United States. It's an open secret that Islamic radicals wanted to blow up the Eiffel tower in the mid-1990s; this could have happened long before the horrendous September 11, 2001 attacks. Unlike the United States, French secret services have so far managed to thwart such attempts. However, France is fighting international terrorism to the best of its abilities; the same can be said about Russia.

Does the administration of President George Bush Jr. understand that it's playing with fire, and that it can plunge the world into an abyss of nuclear conflicts and all-out terror? I think the answer is "Yes." Still one gets the impression that Washington is ready to take its chances. Many US politicians still remain convinced that America has so far failed to reap the fruits of its victory over the Soviet Union as a result of the Cold War. Washington has been hatching plans to establish model Mideastern democracies with the use of military force and other methods for several years now. By the way, US occupation authorities had established democratic political systems in Japan and Germany 50 years ago.

True, history knows of many attempts to make the human race happy; however, such attempts were largely unsuccessful. The United States might also flop this time.

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