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US will begin Iraq operation in 2 weeks, Russian expert
says
MOSCOW. March 5 (Interfax) - Sergei Rogov, director of the Institute of U.S.
and Canadian Studies, believes that the U.S. will begin a military operation
against Iraq in about two weeks.
"The U.S. will go to war no matter what the outcome of the UN Security
Council session," Rogov told a news conference in Moscow on Wednesday.
However, the U.S. "is trying to pressure [the adoption of] some
resolution in the UN Security Council hoping that Russia and France will not
want to get into a direct conflict with them and will not use their right to
veto," he said.
Regarding Russia's possible actions, Rogov said he believes Russia will veto
the resolution if it sanctions the use of force against Iraq. "If the draft
resolution is vague, Russian may abstain from voting," the expert said.
Rogov said that over 250,000 U.S. troops stationed in the Persian Gulf will
make a quick victory over Iraq possible. "The war will be brief and the
possible occupation of Iraq will last for a long time," he said.
At the same time, Rogov said the U.S. attempt to create an illusion of the
international community's support for military action against Iraq has failed
and, in this sense, the U.S. has suffered political defeat even before the
operation has begun.
Concerning the possible consequences of the war against Iraq, Rogov said that
the military operation will most likely undermine the unity of the international
anti-terror coalition and will have a negative impact on NATO's role in world
politics. A U.S.-led military operation may also result in the cooling of
Russian-American relations.
"I don't think there will be a cold war. Nonetheless, there may be some
negative consequences in the relations between the two countries," Rogov
said. He said such consequences include a delay in Russia's ratification of the
Treaty on Strategic Offensive Weapons Reduction. At the same time, the expert
said a war in Iraq may create even bigger problems in U.S. relations with France
and Germany.
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