#6
Rossiiskiye Vesti
No. 5
February 2003
[translation from RIA Novosti for personal use only]
WASHINGTON NEEDS MOSCOW
By Alexei STROGIN

If Russia finally takes the American side, the possibility that we might get back approximately US $9 billion worth of Iraqi debt would become much higher than it is today. According to some sources, the US officials have already given Russia confidential assurances that after the demise of Baghdad's regime Russian companies would be allowed not only to keep their existing contracts on the exploration of Iraqi oil, but also expand them.

The closing of Russian and American positions on the Iraqi issue is obvious. Russia is practically supporting the upcoming US military operation in Iraq, although it hasn't voiced its support officially. The Russian leadership after re-evaluating the situation from a more realistic standpoint is obviously trying to distance itself from Iraq. The Kremlin undoubtedly realizes that nowadays a public display of discontent without any concrete actions behind mere words would only reveal its weakness rather than emphasize its strength.

When the United States increased its pressure on Iraq, Russian representatives immediately started talking about Russia's economic interests in the region. Previously, Iraq had never been a subject of discussion, but the American politicians quickly took a rather blunt hint.

They promised that Russia would be rewarded for its support.

The development of the Russian economic elite also helped changing the policy to closer cooperation with the United States. After four years of steady growth in oil production, the leading representatives of the Russian oil business claim that their major goal nowadays is to penetrate Western markets. Closer Russian and American positions on the Iraqi issue (although not advertised) don't contradict the main intentions of Russian businessmen. On the contrary, they helps achieve these goals.

All those corrections helped change the overall position of Russian leadership, which earlier aimed at supporting Saddam Hussein's regime. Saddam could easily lose, but Russia would not allow it to become its loss, as well.

The increased US pressure on Iraq definitely minimized the advantages Baghdad could offer Moscow in exchange for staying on its side. Certainly, Russia could benefit from the crisis by increasing the trade volume with Iraq, but it's already obvious that in order to achieve more important long-term goals - receiving the Iraqi debt and exploring Iraqi oil deposits for a long time - Russia must cooperate with Washington rather than with Baghdad.

The most clear indication that Russia doesn't want to support Saddam Hussein is the fact that it signed UN Resolution 1441, which contains a warning to Saddam that he should expect "grave consequences" in case he refuses to comply with UN demands to disarm. Despite the apparent clarity of this statement, Russia will have a lot of reasons to limit Bush administration's freedom of action. Probably, there would be many debates about the mandate of the UN inspectors and the length of their work in Iraq. There might be some people who would claim that by supporting the United States Russia would weaken its own position in the UN Security Council. There would be the example of France, Germany and other countries that fiercely criticize the US policy. There would be the opportunity to use Iraqi issue to demand US concessions on Chechen and Georgian problems.

Besides, Russia could always retain a certain freedom of choice until it's convinced that the United States would go to the end. After all, Washington is obviously seeking Moscow's support, offering Russia benefits that could only be used in case of the victory over Iraq. Until it's absolutely clear that the USA will gain a certain victory, it's much safer for Russia to stay neutral, rather than to take blindly and prematurely the American side.

The facts that Russian leadership toughened its rhetoric directed at Saddam's regime and that Washington put several Chechen separatist groups on its list of global terrorist organizations both point at the new dynamics of the Russian- American relations. Despite all the difficulties, Russia so far has managed to benefit from the "fight against terrorism" headed by the United States, and probably it would receive additional gains as a result of the toppling of Saddam's regime in Iraq.

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