#8
Novye Izvestia
February 13, 2003
THE NEW ENTENTE MAY SPRING A LEAK
Russia does not really care about Iraq - it will not confront Washington
Author: Yuri Kovalenko, Vladimir Urban
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]

NO BOMBS HAVE FALLEN ON IRAQ YET, BUT THE UPCOMING INTERVENTION IS ALREADY SHAKING THE FOUNDATIONS OF THE THREE MAJOR INSTITUTIONS ON WHICH COOPERATION AMONG WESTERN DEMOCRACIES IS BASED: THE EUROPEAN UNION, NATO, AND THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL. EACH OF THEM IS IN ITS WORST CRISIS SINCE VIETNAM.

Promptly dubbed "the new Entente", the trilateral alliance of Russia, France, and Germany - formed during Vladimir Putin's visit to Paris in the hope of preventing the war on Iraq - could actually expire even before the start of the American intervention.

Moscow immediately placed an emphasis on the need to preserve the counter-terrorism coalition, and Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov told Le Figaro that the trio's joint communique was not a challenge to President George W. Bush but an invitation to seek a solution.

Even President Putin himself considers that "if we are active, logical, and tactful, there is a chance that we will convince our American partners." Putin announced that he does not consider it necessary to invoke Russia's veto power in the UN Security Council in the hope that the voice of the three countries would be heard across the ocean.

Most probably, however, everything will be the other way round. If and when it comes to another resolution, the United States (adept in using the carrot and the stick approach to score diplomatic victories) will probably secure the support of the majority of the fifteen members of the Security Council, and not a single one of the other permanent member will dare veto the resolution. Moreover, Russia could be the weakest link in the chain. If it is, it will be the first to succumb to pressure.

Helene Carrer d'Ancosse, Permanent Secretary of the French Academy and a specialist on Russia, does not think the Kremlin will dare invoke its veto powers. She considers that Putin is aiming for rapprochement with France and Germany - but not at the cost of partnership with the United States. She perceives a distinct element of bargaining in the Kremlin's strategy, an attempt to gain additional substance in the eyes of the United States. All this maneuvering is supposed to secure Russia a niche in post-war Iraq and access to its oil resources. While "the old Europe" was working itself into a rage and attracting the wrath of the White House, Putin had a telephone conversation with Bush, in which refrained from any word of criticism, according to Le Figaro.

Like its former allies in the socialist camp, Moscow is out to squeeze everything possible from economic cooperation with the Old World; but is fully content to follow in America's wake in matters of global politics. Russia's policy in the Iraqi conflict remains clearly ambivalent as far as Europe is concerned. Stalling for time, Putin has opted to support Pars and Berlin; but he will surely support the US Administration in the confrontation in the UN Security Council, according to a former Western ambassador to Moscow. And if the Russians chose to be the first to fall back from the battlefield, it will make the same maneuver much easier for the French and Germans.

For the time being, Paris is promoting its peace plan, supported by Berlin and Moscow. It proposes to triple the number of weapons inspectors in Iraq (the UN has 119 inspectors there now), establish mobile teams of customs officials and a data processing center, and broader use of American U-2s, French Mirage-IV, and Russian Antonov planes. Under the circumstances, "the United States should come up with an anti-French strategy because France is already acting outside the limits of NATO," says Richard Perle, a prominent Pentagon hawk. Actually, the Americans no longer need NATO bases, since they can always get whatever support in Europe they need on the basis of bilateral contacts.

Since Russia is unlikely to want a conflict with America over Saddam Hussein, France will hardly have the courage to invoke its veto powers all on its own. Most French citizens oppose the war, however, and experts say this is not the moment to hide their flags in their pockets (as the French saying goes). All of France recalls the "heroic" year of 1966 when General de Gaulle quit the NATO military organization to spite the Americans.

Pascqual Boniface, Director of the Institute of International and Strategic Relations, is certain that a French veto as a lesser evil will become a logical continuation of the policy of Paris, and show the world that France can hold its head high. Abstaining from voting in the UN Security Council, on the other hand, would indicate submission to "American dictatorship". A French veto is not going to prevent the Americans from launching the war. But it would show the world that brute force is not all there is.

As far as the New World is concerned, the war is a beneficial undertaking from the political, economic, and ethical points of view. In the Old World, however, experts say that a war will affect Europe's economy badly. Experts predict a serious depression in the Old World. Despite oil prices, Russia will be affected as well - with 50% of its trade turnover concentrated in the European Union countries.

Not a single bomb has fallen on Iraq yet, but the upcoming intervention is already shaking the foundations of the three major institutions on which cooperation among Western democracies is based: the European Union, NATO, and the UN Security Council. Each of them is in its worst crisis since the war in Vietnam.

P.S. Russian reconnaissance planes need twenty-four hours if orders come from the command to join UN inspectors in Iraq. Sources in the Air Force command say that the order to go to this readiness level has already been sent to the AN-30 detachment based at Kubinka near Moscow. During his press conference in Rome on Monday, Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov reiterated support for the idea of reinforcing the teams of international inspectors looking for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. "We have reconnaissance planes to monitor territories," Ivanov said. "We will make them available on request." It isn't hard to guess that Ivanov was talking of the AN-30 planes deployed under the Open Skies international treaty. The UN has not approached Russia for help so far, and tomorrow will be too late, because the Americans are ready to strike.

AN-30s can scan territory even from an altitude of 200 meters. In any case, legal espionage is better than cloak-and-dagger activity: there would be no need to refer to anonymous sources who are not above telling lies to demonstrate Saddam Hussein's aggressive nature.

Actually, Russia has not made a single attempt in the last two days to have the UN request Russian reconnaissance planes. Ivanov made his statement. The order to stand ready was sent to Kubinka. Russian planes are not grounded by foul weather in Baghdad. It is just that the Kremlin is looking for a decent way out of the Iraqi crisis for itself, and does not care about a peaceful solution to the crisis. The AN-30s story is merely enabling Moscow to save face. The best way of annoying the trigger-happy Americans would be to remind them of the existence of these planes again, but in the form of an official demand that they should be used. Under the Open Skies terms, Russia may inspect Turkey where Washington is building up an army group to be used against Iraq. The Kremlin has to inform its partners of its intention to send planes to make inspection flights over Turkey, wait 72 hours, and Turkey will have to comply. It is clear, however, that Moscow is not going to demand anything like that from Ankara. Such a move would not be in accordance with the logic of Russia's true policy in the matter of the US-Iraq confrontation.

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