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Pragmatic Russia in balancing-act over Iraq: analysts
February 13, 2003
AFP

Russia is playing a finely balanced hand over Iraq, supporting the anti-war camp led by France and Germany but careful not to put itself in irreversible opposition to the United States, analysts say.

With the chief UN weapons inspectors to make a crucial report before the UN Security Council on Friday, President Vladimir Putin has appeared to toughen his stance, backing a peace initiative by Paris and Berlin during a visit to the two European capitals.

He even warned Wednesday that Moscow may use its veto in the Security Council if the United States seeks authorisation for a strike on Baghdad and reiterated his view that the unilateral use of force against Iraq is "totally unacceptable."

However, the Russian leader is a pragmatist who attaches huge importance to his good relationship with US President George W. Bush, and will not try to block US war plans if Washington pushes ahead with its offensive, commentators believe. "There will not be any direct support for the US if they go and attack Saddam. But we will not be as hostile as the French or Germans," Maxim Yusin, foreign editor of the Izvestia daily, said.

"The main thing for Putin is not to have a conflict with either the United States or Europe. He values very highly his friendly ties with Bush and he won't take any steps that could create serious problems for him," Yusin told AFP.

Acutely aware of Russia's loss of clout since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Russian leader since his election three years ago has sought to improve ties with the West to get much-needed foreign capital and integrate his country more closely into the global economy.

Most spectacularly, after the September 11, 2001 attacks, Putin swung behind the US-led "war on terrorism" and Moscow and Washington have since built a strong partnership despite US concerns over Russian's military and nuclear ties with rogue state Iran.

The pro-US policy shift has enfuriated nationalists and hardliners in the military establishment who believe that Russia has gained little in return for concessions such as allowing US troops into Central Asia and Georgia.

This means that Putin, who faces parliamentary elections in December and re-election in March 2004, has to tread carefully in his stand towards US threats to topple Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.

"He cannot afford in an election year to give any support to the United States over Iraq given the domestic opposition that exists," commented Viktor Kremenyuk, deputy director of the USA-Canada Institute.

Russia, which has called along with Germany and France for UN weapons inspections in Iraq to be strengthened, is genuinely opposed to a US war in Iraq, but for very self-interested reasons.

It has huge interests in oil-rich Iraq and is owed billions of dollars in Soviet-era debts by Baghdad. Most of all, Moscow worries that Washington could flood the market with Iraqi crude, bringing oil prices crashing.

Reliant on oil and gas exports for 40 percent of its budget revenues, Russia's economy could suffer severe consequences should oil prices fall as low as 15 dollars a barrel.

"Russia doesn't want war in Iraq, for purely pragmatic reasons," said the Izvestia foreign editor.

"Once this war is over and the Americans have taken control of oil in Iraq, this oil will find its way onto the market as UN sanctions will be lifted and price for our oil will drop and this will hit our budget," he added.

But the Russian president knows he has a weak hand and is determined not to repeat the mistakes of the past and provoke a crisis with the United States, as his predecessor Boris Yeltsin did in 1999 when he tried to stop NATO from bombing Yugoslavia.

"Russia has adopted a very favourable position. If it was almost alone, like over Yugoslavia, it would find itself isolated," said Yury Korgunyuk, an analyst from the INDEM think-tank.

"Russia's foreign policy has changed. It is no longer the era of great hopes like after the collapse of the Soviet Union," he added.

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