#8
Vremya Novostei
February 6, 2003
CAN RUSSIA FIGHT IRAQ?
The Russian military is not ready for cooperation with the West
Another look at what Russia might do in the event of war
Author: Nikolai Poroskov
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
IT IS CLEAR THAT IF AN ANTI-IRAQ COALITION WERE FORMED, RUSSIA'S POTENTIAL
PARTICIPATION IN IT WILL BE DETERMINED BY CONSIDERATIONS OF POLITICAL
EXPEDIENCY. BUT PROSPECTS FOR MILITARY-TECHNICAL COOPERATION WITH THE WEST ARE
MUCH MORE PLAUSIBLE THAN PURELY MILITARY COOPERATION.
As hostilities between the United States with its partners in the
counter-terrorism coalition and Iraq draw closer, the question of the extent to
which the Russian military can cooperate with Western military structures
becomes more urgent. It is clear that if an anti- Iraq coalition were formed,
Russia's potential participation in it will be determined by considerations of
political expediency. But if cooperation were chosen, will Russia be able to
participate from the military point of view and what forms will this cooperation
take?
When the Russia in United Europe committee approached him for comments, Yuri
Baluyevsky of the General Staff said: "The General Staff is not ready to
give an inclusive answer to this for the time being."
Baluyevsky cannot speak his mind, for fear of what this may do to his career;
but military analysts in retirement do not have such inhibitions. Major General
Vladimir Dvorkin (retired), head of the Strategic Nuclear Forces Studies Center,
is one of them. He doesn't think that the Russian Armed Forces in their current
state are ready for any effective cooperation of this sort.
The command structure is the first barrier. The West follows the principle of
unified command, while the Russian Armed Forces are split into military
districts and branches of service. The second barrier is presented by the
growing technological gap, particularly in the spheres of combat control,
communications, aerial and space reconnaissance. Unlike the Russian military,
Western commanders are updated on the tactical situation in real time. As far as
high- precision weapons systems are concerned, the West has long since adopted
the principle of "fire-and-forget". But Russian units need a laser
beam trained at the target. That means the use of radar. The state arms
procurement program specifies 80 kinds of shells for high- precision weapons
systems. Not one of them had reached the troops yet.
American and European military commanders hold diametrically opposed views
about potential cooperation with Russia. Some of them consider that Russia may
be useful when it is necessary to overwhelm the enemy by sheer numbers, or
burden the enemy with numerous POWs. At best, Russia would play the role the
Northern Alliance played in the recent war against the Taliban in Afghanistan.
More optimistic officers believe that cooperation with Russia in the sphere
of air defense is quite possible, particularly if Russia uses its S-300 and
S-400 systems. Russian engineering units are highly valued as well.
On the other hand, the most promising prospects of cooperation have little to
do with the hypothetical war on Iraq. The Russian and Western military agree
that cooperation on missile defense in a theater of operations is particularly
promising. Marshal Igor Sergeev, then-defense minister, forwarded a
corresponding plan to Lord George Robertson in 1999.
The NATO command saw that Russia has everything needed to build a missile
defense of the European theater of operations - a unique missile attack early
warning system and unmatched interceptor missiles. Political will and a joint
coordinating body are what is needed to set the project to motion.
According to Dvorkin, the "non-combat" horizons of military-
technical cooperation between Russia and the West are much broader than anything
else. Russia and the West may pool efforts to build a new Russian-European
plane. Aircraft design and weapons have always been Russia's strong suit;
avionics and electronics the West's. The Russian military-industrial complex
would gladly seize any opportunity to establish cooperation of this sort.
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