#7
US v. IRAQ -- SUSPICION IS NOT EVIDENCE IN ITSELF

MOSCOW, FEBRUARY 6, 2003 /from RIA Novosti's political analyst Vladimir Simonov/ - If Iraq were an American national, a certain Mr Iraq standing trial, and Colin Powell were the prosecutor, any sensible trial jury would have acquitted the culprit. The US State Secretary's multimedia supported presentation at the United Nations Security Council on Wednesday abounded in evidence of suspicion rather than evidence of fact that Iraq deploys banned mass destruction weapons. Suspicion, however, is not evidence in itself.

Mr Powell's case was like many other prosecution cases. He piled up no end of potty details, which individually can be challenged since no names or sources whatsoever were provided. However, that heap of accusatory evidence could make a strong impression on inexperienced observers.

The foreign ministers of Russia, France and China lent an attentive ear to a communication intercept of a conversation between two militaries, one telling the other to have "modified vehicles" hidden by the weapons inspectors' arrival and to remove references to "nerve agents" from military transmissions. Besides, the ministers looked alarmed with the satellite photos showing a convoy of trucks allegedly moving away from weapons inspectors.

However, at least three countries enjoying veto at the Security Council were not impressed by Mr Powell's "hour of truth" as determinative of Iraq's destiny. Mr Powell's address did enhance a suspicion of Iraq concealing something. It did confirm that Baghdad's co-operativeness with the Hans Blix and Mohamed ElBaradei-led inspections left much to be desired. Yet, the more suspicions are built up against Iraq the more pressing is the need for further inspection effort in that country, the effort that can dispel the suspicions.

French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin promptly motioned the number of inspectors engaged in the Iraqi mission be tripled, more regional offices and a new co-ordinating centre be set up and extra aeroplanes provided to them. The inspection option, believes the minister, is far from exhausted. Military force must be used in the last resort, he insisted.

Mr Powell's address prompted the Russian Foreign Minister, Igor Ivanov, to propose enhancing the role of the United Nations Monitoring Verification and Inspection Commission and the International Atomic Energy Agency, and giving an impetus to their effort in Iraq. Russia could provide one surveillance aircraft for the UN mission, suggested Mr Ivanov. Western reporters had a field day describing Colin Powell's countenance when he heard the suggestion. Further inspections are what Washington is dead set against, insisting the UNMOVIC is of no use any longer and should therefore be replaced by 110,000 American troops.

The conferees agree Mr Powell's evidence linking Baghdad to the Al-Qaeda terrorist net was the least persuasive. The State Secretary spent 20 minutes toying with the name of Abu Musab Zarqawi, allegedly Osama bin Laden's operative who is active in the part of Iraq uncontrolled by Saddam Hussein. Mr Powell failed to tie that person to Baghdad, his assertion resting in the domain of abstract logic, not facts.

Wednesday's Security Council meeting did not turn the world upside down contrary to Washington's forecasts. The Security Council is still split over the war prospect. Mr Powell's story did not carry much conviction for the opponents of a war in Iraq.

Whether Iraq hides aluminium pipes or ping pongs its trucks waiting for the advent of weapons inspectors, or whether Iraqi military mention "modified vehicles" in their transmissions or not is not so important in fact. The question countries all across the world should answer is whether Iraq is such a threat that it must be overthrown by force. Is it a threat that is worth claiming lives of tens, if not hundreds or thousands of people and causing collapse of international stability and economic convulsions world wide in the civilised 21st century?

Colin Powell failed to answer that question.

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