#14
Asia Times
February 6, 2003
Musharraf a small fish in Putin's pool
By Sergei Blagov

MOSCOW - Russian President Vladimir Putin endorsed the Pakistani role in the war on terror as President General Pervez Musharraf traveled to Russia for a three-day visit that ends on Thursday, the first visit by a Pakistani president in some two decades. However, the modest results of the rare summit meeting between Russian and Pakistani leaders arguably indicate that traditional strategic partnerships are yet to commence shifting.

For instance, on Wednesday Russia and Pakistan signed three relatively insignificant agreements on security, cultural and diplomatic cooperation. The agreement on cooperation between the two interior ministries is understood to be a typical deal, identical to Russia's agreements with other nations. Cultural agreement includes a draft on bilateral cultural exchanges in 2003-2006. The third accord established exchanges of trainee diplomats.

Pakistan had hoped to secure other agreements with Russia, notably on trade and energy exploration. In July 2002, Pakistan and Russia reportedly inked a memorandum of understanding in Moscow to allow Russian natural gas monopoly Gazprom to join a planned project to build US$3.2 billion gas pipeline from Iran to India. The agreement also envisaged Russian assistance for converting Pakistani diesel vehicles to the compressed natural gas mode. However, in recent months, the deal has failed to translate into any concrete action.

When meeting with Russian businessmen on Wednesday, Musharraf asked for help in expanding trade between Pakistan and Russia, especially in the privatization process of the Pakistani oil and gas sector, Musharraf was quoted as saying by RIA. However, the gas pipeline project was not mentioned during the visit.

Last year, the total volume of two-way trade between the two countries reached $83 million, but heavily in favor of Russia as that country's exports amounted to $71 million. By comparison, Russia and India, Moscow's traditional partner and Islamabad's nuclear arch-rival, traded goods worth more than $1 billion last year. Furthermore, New Delhi has bought some $30 billion worth of weapons from Moscow since the 1960s and Russian weapons account for nearly 80 percent of India's arsenal.

Last month, Russian and Indian officials agreed on a protocol on Indian purchases of new Russian weapons, cooperation in building a new fighter aircraft and joint production of the Brahmos cruise missile. The Brahmos, expected to be deployed in 2004, based on the Russian Yakhont anti-ship missile, has a range of 300 kilometers and flies at twice the speed of sound. A long-awaited deal on the purchase of the Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov is now expected by the end of March.

Not surprisingly, Moscow has been careful to offer caveats designed not to offend its traditional strategic partner in South Asia, India. Russia views as important "to develop constructive interaction with Pakistan in regional and international affairs," yet "without damage for our traditional partners", Putin said in a clear reference to India, according to RIA. Russia's hopes for the summit meeting with Pakistan were that it would "create a multi-polar world, which would be a guarantee of strategic stability", the Kremlin said in a statement before Musharraf's visit.

Moreover, on Tuesday the Kremlin press service said that as Musharraf arrived, Putin spoke by telephone to Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, assuring him that talks with Pakistan would not produce any shift in Russia's global priorities. Last November and December, in yet another gesture towards India, Putin voiced concern regarding the safety of Pakistan's nuclear weapons.

Musharraf was expected to seek Moscow's support for negotiations with India over Kashmir. Officials in Islamabad have indicated that Putin could play a role in arranging peace talks. However, Musharraf secured just a muted backing of his negotiating efforts. Russia supports work aimed at "renewing dialogue between Pakistan and India", Putin stated. "New ways to normalize relations between India and Pakistan" were discussed during the talks, Putin was quoted by RIA as saying.

Nonetheless, on Wednesday, Musharraf thanked Putin for his "meaningful contribution" in solving issues between their two countries, made in Almaty, Kazakhstan, last year. Musharraf referred to the Conference on Interactions and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) summit in Almaty in June last year. At the summit, China, Russia, India and Pakistan sent their leaders.

However, last year Putin failed to get Vajpayee and Musharraf agree to hold direct talks under Russia's aegis on the sidelines of the CICA summit. Nonetheless, Musharraf's latest visit came at the initiative of Putin, who extended the invitation last June.

Another factor shadowing the meeting between Musharraf and Putin is China. It is understood that any shift in Pakistan's ties with Russia will have an impact on relations with China. On Tuesday, China welcomed Musharraf's visit to Moscow and hoped that it would further help peace and development in the region. When asked to comment on the visit, a spokesperson of the Chinese government said that Pakistan and Russia are both neighboring and friendly countries of China.

The Kremlin's Asian policy is understood to be firmly based on prioritizing ties with India and China. When Putin traveled to China and India in early December last year, speculation resurfaced about the three countries ganging up to form a "strategic triangle" to help balance the global dominance of the United States. So far, though, the three have distanced themselves from the idea of such a strategic axis.

In the meantime, Islamabad suddenly came up with a bold idea to join a regional grouping, dominated by China and Russia. Pakistan intends to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and expects Russian backing, Musharraf told RIA and the ITAR-Tass news agencies on the eve of his trip to Moscow. Islamabad's interest in joining SCO came as a surprise, yet Russian leaders refrained from any clear-cut reaction, and the idea was not mentioned during the talks at the Kremlin.

Incidentally, SCO emerged as a by-product of border disputes between China and its northern neighbors. In 1997, Russia and China signed a treaty along with the former Soviet states of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan on the reduction of border troops. These nations that now share the former Soviet-Chinese border became known as the Shanghai Five. A transformation took place at the fifth annual summit of the Shanghai Five in China in June, 2001 and the group was transformed to a new international body, SCO.

The SCO member-states believe that the world order in the 21st century should be based on "mechanisms of collective decision-making and democratization of international relations," says the SCO declaration, approved in June 2002. It says that the United Nations should work out a binding legal basis for anti-terrorist activity that would prevent the use of anti-terrorist action as a cover-up for interference in the internal affairs of sovereign states, with wording implicitly opposing US policies. In a sign of who's calling the tune in SCO, the declaration also backs Beijing's position of viewing Taiwan as China's renegade province.

Last year, Putin indicated that India was mulling joining SCO, and added that "we view it positively". Therefore, the Kremlin presumably found itself in an awkward position to comment on Islamabad's surprise initiative before getting a clear response from India (and probably Chinese advice as well). No big wonder, then, that the Kremlin refrained from commenting on Pakistan's intention to join SCO.

So although Putin gave Musharraf a warm welcome, he was keen not to offend India. Therefore, alternative strategic alliances in Asia are unlikely to

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