#6
Moscow Times
January 30, 2003
Iraq: Motives All Mixed Up
By Pavel Felgenhauer

U.S. President George W. Bush has announced that Iraq still possesses hundreds of tons of VX nerve gas, large amounts of biological warfare agents and thousands of warheads to deliver them. Furthermore, he says Saddam Hussein is deliberately thwarting attempts to disarm him and must be forced to disarm. On Feb. 5, Washington will present the UN Security Council with details of intelligence findings. The UN will then be told to give a clear mandate to disarm Hussein using military force; otherwise the United States will do it anyway -- on its own.

It may be true, or at least partially true, that Iraq is still hiding large numbers of weapons of mass destruction. In the past, Hussein produced thousands of tons of such weapons that were used to kill an estimated 45,000 Iraqi Kurds and Iranian soldiers in the 1980s.

The Iraqi military is well known for its expertise in disguise and disinformation. In 1991, they successfully managed to hide up to half of their air force from relentless U.S. air attacks. The true extent of the Iraqi nuclear arms program was revealed only in the mid-1990s by UN arms inspectors.

It's possible that Hussein has hidden his nonconventional weapons somewhere in disguised bunkers together with equipment to make more if the international community lets him off the hook. But up to now UN inspectors have failed to find much concrete evidence of the existence of such underground arms caches. Even if U.S. estimates of the Iraqi underground WMD arsenal are completely correct, it's clear that Hussein does not have any reliable long- or medium-range means to deliver them.

In the 1980s, the Iraqis used warplanes, helicopters and howitzers to deliver nerve and mustard gases. Today there's virtually zero possibility an Iraqi jet could leave Iraqi airspace, which is patrolled by U.S. and British fighters, to attack Israel or, say, Kuwait.

The Soviets once developed warheads for their Scud B missiles capable of delivering chemical and biological weapons. The Iraqis then modified the Scud into an Al Hussein missile, extending its range from 300 kilometers to 650 kilometers (bringing Israel into range).

The original, Soviet-designed chemical or biological Scud warhead had a radio fuse that cracked open the warhead's cover in flight so that the stream of air would disperse the chemical or biological agent into a deadly aerosol. But a solution that was good for a tactical missile would most likely not work on an Al Hussein modification.

A longer range means higher speed at impact. Activating an Al Hussein chemical or biological warhead by simply blowing off the cover near the point of impact, may result in the contents being deactivated by the heat of re-entry into the dense layers of the atmosphere.

Intense flight-testing of chemical or biological medium-range ballistic missile warheads is necessary before usage. But there is no evidence Iraq has performed any such tests.

Today, Hussein cannot engulf any of the big cities of his neighbors with tons of chemical or biological agents. And there is simply no way he can seriously harm the United States. The regime of sanctions and arms inspections can ensure that for years to come Hussein will not be able to expand his present potential into a capacity to use WMD for blackmail or in wars of aggression.

Many Americans and most of the international community are not convinced by the "disarmament" rationale behind the United States' call to arms. Hussein seems to be wining the propaganda contest, as antiwar protests grow. Indeed, disarmament does not require marching on Baghdad this year or ever.

The only worthy reason for going to war and ousting Hussein would be to deliver his people from one of the worst dictatorships in the modern world. Every week of inspections and delay brings more misery and death to Hussein's subjects. A lifting of sanctions would not help: Hussein would then simply be able to spend even more on rebuilding his military might. However, Washington has not been giving much prominence to talk of liberation recently.

In the next couple of months, Hussein will surely be swept away. The majority of Iraqis will most likely greet this as liberation. Politicians and pacifists who choose to oppose a war that is clearly just -- if there is such a thing as a just war -- will be shamed.

After a victory in Iraq, who will there be left to egg on U.S. hawks when they next go overboard in their new-found imperial zeal? This may be the real tragedy of the unfolding Iraq crisis.

Pavel Felgenhauer is an independent defense analyst.

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