#11
BBC Monitoring
Russian analysts predict three scenarios of US war against Iraq
Source: Interfax-AVN military news agency web site, Moscow, in English 1512 gmt 9 Jan 03

Moscow, 9 January: Experts are predicting three basic scenarios of how events might develop during a US military operation against Iraq. "Specialists from the Institute of International Security Issues under Russia's Academy of Sciences have drawn up an analysis based on western experts' conclusions. The analysis has been distributed among the relevant State Duma committees," a source in the parliament's lower chamber told Interfax-Military News Agency today.

Experts say that the key role in the first phase of combat operations will be played by the air and naval forces of the USA and its allies. Once Iraq's air defence is suppressed, the allies will mainly target command posts, basic components of communication and combat supervision, the headquarters of the security forces and republic's guard and the most combat-capable divisions of the Iraqi army.

In the event of a land operation, specialists say that the USA and Britain will have at least three heavy divisions at their disposal that are capable of moving from Kuwait. They will also have access to considerable light forces with transport helicopters and helicopter gunships. According to the first theory, "a decisive victory" over Iraq's armed forces should take between four and six weeks. This is assuming that there won't be any significant damages that could seriously impair Iraq's economic reconstruction and that Saddam Husayn's regime will collapse. This scenario also presupposes that street battles will be local and civilian casualties and overall damages will be low. Nor will Iraq use weapons of mass destruction against American or allied troops. Experts say the possibilities for the above scenario are 40-60 per cent.

The second theory predicts that combat operations will last between six and 12 weeks. The main elements include the following: a major surprise resistance from Iraq's air force; protracted street battles in some towns; moderate civilian casualties and heavy property damage, attempts by Iraq to use weapons of mass destruction to a limited extent and strike oil fields in the region. Experts believe the chances for this second scenario are 30-40 per cent.

The third scenario is the worst for the USA and its allies. According to this prediction, military operations will last between three and six months with fierce military resistance from Iraq's air force. Experts predict intense street battles, major civilian casualties and considerable material damage. Under this last theory, Iraq will attack the armed forces of the USA and its allies, targeting Israel in particular, with weapons of mass destruction, causing massive casualties, and successfully strike oil plants in the region. Iraq will, according to the third scenario, attack Turkey's bases and towns and carry out formidable acts of terror at regional facilities that are of interest to the USA and Britain.

Experts say the chances of the third scenario coming into play are about 10 per cent.

BACK TO THE TOP    #239 CONTENTS    NEXT ARTICLE