#10
Russia left in the dark over N. Korean crisis: analysts
January 9, 2003
AFP
Despite forging good ties with Pyongyang, Moscow has been left in the dark
about North Korea's intentions in its nuclear dispute with the United States,
and has little influence on the outcome, analysts say.
An ally in the US-led war on terrorism, Russian President Vladimir Putin has
also engaged the Stalinist regime of Kim Jong-Il, in line with a balanced
foreign policy that has seen Moscow maintain ties with "rogue states."
That in theory makes Russia well-placed to play the role of an honest broker,
and the issue will be at the centre of discussions in Moscow between Putin and
Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi late this week.
Moscow has quietly voiced some sympathy for North Korea, with diplomatic
sources laying the blame partly on Washington for the breakdown of a 1994
agreement under which Pyongyang froze its nuclear programme in exchange for
energy supplies. But the problem stymying Russia's ambitions for a diplomatic
role is that Moscow has little clue about what is happening inside the
impoverished state, which is almost completely cut off from the outside world.
"We cannot adopt a more active role when we are sitting here guessing
what is going on in North Korea," said Vadim Tkachenko, director of the
Russian Academy of Science's Centre for Korean Studies.
"Pyongyang does not consult with us, we are absolutely in the dark. We
don't know what North Korea wants, it's a very isolated country and we have no
idea what they are doing in these nuclear installations," he told AFP.
Ending a decade-long chill between Moscow and its former Communist client
state after the 1991 break-up of the Soviet Union, Putin has breathed new life
into relations.
The Russian president made a landmark visit to Pyongyang in 2000 and North
Korea's reclusive leader has twice been to Russia.
North Korea badly needs to upgrade its Soviet-built infrastructure, while
Russia has been pushing for the Trans-Siberian railway to be connected to the
Korean peninsula so that freight between Asia and Europe can transit Russia.
But experts in Moscow are skeptical that the Russians can persuade Pyongyang
to back down on their nuclear plans, given Russia's limited economic clout and
Kim Jong-Il's insistence on direct dialogue with the United States.
"Russia does not have sufficient leverage to influence Pyongyang and to
make it stop its nuclear weapons project," Yevgeny Volk, director of the
Moscow branch of the US-based Heritage Foundation, told AFP.
"Although Russia has traditionally close ties with Pyongyang, and Putin
met three times with Kim Jong-Il and their relations seem rather good, still
Moscow lacks the main thing that North Korea wants, massive economic assistance
which would help the present Communist regime survive," he added.
In the expert's view, Pyongyang's decision to expel UN monitors and restart
its Yongbyon nuclear complex, mothballed under the 1994 agreement with the
United States, is a bluff to extract large-scale Western aid.
Russia, anxious to project its influence in the region and promote its role
as an Asian power, has a keen interest in getting involved in resolving the
conflict.
"It wants to play a more active role to boost its own prestige and
maintain a high profile in the Asia-Pacific region," Volk said.
But North Korean tactics are to pressure the United States into resuming
direct diplomatic dialogue and they are not interested in intermediaries,
according to Tkachenko from the Korean institute.
Washington on Tuesday said it was willing to hold talks to end the ongoing
crisis, abandoning its previous refusal to negotiate with the Communist regime,
branded as part of an "axis of evil" by the Bush administration.
"They don't want to involve us in this. Pyongyang only wants to settle
the dispute directly with the United States, Kim Jong-Il has not made any offer
for Russia to take part," Tkachenko said.
BACK TO THE TOP  #239 CONTENTS NEXT ARTICLE
|
