#9
BBC Monitoring
Leading political expert examines Russia's foreign policy successes, failures
Source: Strana.Ru web site, Moscow, in Russian 26 Dec 02

The president of Russia's Politika Foundation, Vyacheslav Nikonov, has said that "on the whole, Russia has strengthened" its positions in the world. Among the main foreign policy achievements he named granting market economy status to Russia, the decision to transform the fully-fledged G7 into the G8, the creation of the 20 group in NATO and the adoption of a "concerted" resolution on Iraq. He said that Russia's main problems next year would be connected with Iraq and the aftermath of any military operation against Iraq. The following is the text of the interview entitled "On the Whole, Russia Has Strengthened Its International Positions", published by the Russian Strana.Ru web site on 26 December. Subheadings have been inserted editorially.

Russia strengthens its international positions

[Question] How far have we advanced in foreign policy over the past year? Have there been any pluses?

[Nikonov] I would name as the main positive aspects, above all, the United States and EU's granting Russia the status of a country with a market economy, as well as the decision adopted in Kananaskis [Canada] to transform the fully-fledged G7 into the G8. In addition, there was the conclusion of the Strategic Offensive Reduction Treaty in May, although it seemed at the beginning of the year that there would be no more agreements in this area. Also positive was the creation of "the 20" grouping within NATO and the eventual adoption of a concerted resolution on Iraq despite, once again, the plans that existed for unilateral US actions. On the whole, I believe, Russia has strengthened its international positions.

No real progress in relations with CIS

[Question] What about the CIS viewpoint?

[Nikonov] Quite frankly, I have seen no real progress here. There have been trends in different directions. There has been ebbing and flowing with Belarus and more positive dynamics with Ukraine and more negative dynamics with Georgia, which evened out only towards the end of the year. On the other hand, there has been aggravation with Turkmenistan. The overall conclusion with regard to the CIS is probably as follows: Nothing serious happened and the balance of pluses and minuses was roughly equal, with a slight preponderance of pluses.

Failures of Russia's foreign policy

[Question] Can it be said that the CIS has strengthened, as it were, during this year?

[Nikonov] No, it has not strengthened greatly.

[Question] What failures have there been?

[Nikonov] I believe that the US withdrawal from the ABM treaty was a failure of Russian foreign policy. In fact, we had no reason to support that decision, just as we had no reason to support NATO's expansion. Of course, this is not a direct threat to Russian security but it is the creation of a European security system without us. I mean NATO expansion.

I believe that Kaliningrad was a minus because there could, in actual fact, have been a solution: Either no visas or, as [Vladimir] Putin was insisting, easier procedures for obtaining a Schengen visa because then it would have been possible to travel throughout Europe. But we have ended up with a flawed intermediate version: It is, all the same, necessary to obtain a visa but specifically a transit visa for Lithuania, which is, in fact, not of interest. I would rate the exacerbation of Russian-Georgian relations as one of the minuses.

[Question] Are we partly to blame here?

[Nikonov] It is not important who is more to blame. Relations have been exacerbated and that's bad. I do not believe that we were greatly to blame for the fact that the United States withdrew from the ABM Treaty but, nevertheless, this was not a favourable development of the situation. I also believe that we did not do everything to protect our companies' interests in Iraq.

Main problems next year

[Question] What are we faced with doing first of all next year? What are the most important problems?

[Nikonov] Our main problems next year will be connected with Iraq and the aftermath of the military operation against Iraq - with the consolidation of our positions in a post-Saddam Iraq. The situation concerning North Korea promises to be acute if Kim Jong-il continues to engage in nuclear blackmail. I do not rule out the possibility that the Americans may carry out a strike. Even though we all take a very sceptical attitude towards this, I believe that they might. There is a problem connected with EU enlargement because the decision has already been made to introduce EU norms in many East European countries next year. This is connected not only with visa regimes but also with new customs and transit regulations and so forth. They might try out some antidumping procedures, which have never existed before, in East European countries. This will be the most painful package of problems for us.

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