#9
Versty
No. 146
December 2002
[translation from RIA Novosti for personal use only]
STAR WARS: FIRST SALVOES
By Boris VINOGRADOV

President George Bush Jr. of the United States has said that his country will deploy the first NMD (National Missile Defense) components, i.e. six missile interceptors in Fort Greeley (Alaska) and four other missile interceptors at the Vanderberg air-force base (California), over the 2004 period. Moscow has reacted rather calmly to this revelation, with the Russian Foreign Ministry merely issuing a routine note of protest.

Besides, the State Duma has made some remarks on this issue. However, the Russian side made no other statements in connection with the virtual beginning of the Star Wars era. In fact, the Kremlin hasn't yet voiced its attitude toward such US actions.

President Vladimir Putin of the Russian Federation, who chatted with his compatriots online, said nothing about this issue. The Russian side still remains silent. Neither Moscow, nor Washington know anything about subsequent Russian actions.

Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov tried to clarify Moscow's position December 20, after arriving in Washington. Talking to US State Secretary Colin Powell, Ivanov merely repeated the contents of the afore-said note. Russia still adheres to those specific assessments, which were made after the unilateral US decision to withdraw from the 1972 ABM (Anti- Ballistic Missile) Treaty. It should be mentioned in this connection that Washington abrogated the ABM Treaty June 13, 2002. Meanwhile President Bush warned about this imminent move December 13, 2001. Ivanov's assessments should apparently be evaluated in line with the science of dialectical materialism, the law of the negation of negation, to be more exact. The US side should comprehend the fact that Russia will never reconcile itself to the ABM Treaty's premature abrogation, as well as plans to conduct an arms race in outer space. Moreover, Russia rejects US plans to deploy an NMD system. One can suppose that these statements didn't scare the State Department very much. In response, Powell refuted Moscow's suspicions about covert US intentions to encircle Russia with early warning radars and missile interceptor launchers.

Strange, as it may seem, but all 10 missile interceptors, which will become part and parcel of the projected NMD system, face Russia, rather than the so-called rogue states. The same number of missile interceptors are to be deployed over the 2005-2006 period; however, their exact location still remains secret. According to some sources, these interceptors will be linked with other facilities, which ring the entire Eurasian continent from the north. Moreover, the United States would like to use early warning radars in Yorkshire (Great Britain) and at the Thule base (Greenland) after their reconstruction. The relevant proposals have already been sent to London and Copenhagen. Quite possibly, early warning radars, which were abandoned by the Russian Armed Forces in the Baltics, might become part and parcel of this system. Our military, who note this geographic feature, are alarmed that the United States might upset the existing parity, and that it would receive unilateral advantages in the field of strategic offensive arms.

These suspicions could be explained by that old-fashioned mentality and careful reflection that were typical of our military-industrial sector during the Cold War period. Both Presidents prefer to act in such a manner, while discussing this issue. George Bush keeps stressing each time that he would like to invite Russia to take part in the creation of a global ABM system that would shield all countries involved. It's downright senseless to oppose this good idea. For his own part, Vladimir Putin made it clear at the May 2002 summit in Moscow that Russia didn't refuse to cooperate on security-related issues. At the same time, we'd like the United States to show us where the enemy is hiding and from where an attack should be expected. Russia doesn't perceive any hints concerning North Korea, Iraq or Yemen as convincing enough.

Any serious doubts can be sorted out and eliminated by other methods, without resorting to such desperate moves as the creation of up-to-date ABM systems that would inevitably militarize outer space. Small wonder, Igor Ivanov mostly noted the need to fulfil specific accords, which were reached during the May 2002 summit in Moscow, while negotiating in Washington. First of all, this implies joint efforts to counter real-life threats of the current period, such as international terrorism, as well as the possible proliferation of mass destruction weapons and missile technologies. We also agreed to implement military cooperation programs within the framework of the Russia - NATO council. All this opens up ample opportunities. Everyone agrees with this. These issues still remain on the agenda, with Washington emphasizing their importance. However, the NMD issue is perceived as something no less important by the US side. The United States is still inviting Russia to join in; this invitation was confirmed by Colin Powell once again.

The extent of Russia's involvement is the most important thing. What can the United States offer us? Judging by those specific R&D projects, which were implemented during that four-year period of cooperation between the Russian and US military, any effective ABM systems are still nowhere to be seen. Moreover, any mutual cohesion seems unlikely.

Russia is unable to vie with the United States in terms of its state-of-the-art technologies and financial contribution. Frankly speaking, everything boils down to this. Russia can't afford to implement such costly projects; as a matter of fact, these projects are out of the question. Washington understands only too well that Moscow, which has a rather unimpressive economic potential, won't even hint at any serious participation in the Star Wars program. Russia can offer nothing but early-warning stations, also agreeing to site US facilities on its territory. There apparently doesn't exist any other option for merging and combining our interests. In that case, any discussions concerning nuclear parity and the equal ability to inflict damage on the enemy in case of a missile attack lose all sense. An epoch of complete political trust should begin in relations between our two powers, which had perceived each other as theoretical enemies for over 50 consecutive years. In our opinion, this amounts to political science fiction, which is bolder and more imaginative than Star Wars-related fantasies.

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