#6
BBC Monitoring
Russian expert urges softly-softly approach to North Korea
Source: Channel One TV, Moscow, in Russian 2100 gmt 25 Dec 02

[Presenter] The guest expert of "Night Vremya" today is Professor Yevgeniy Bazhanov, chief of the Institute of Topical International Problems, vice-principal of the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Good evening, Yevgeniy Petrovich.

[Bazhanov, via video link] Good evening.

[Presenter] Yevgeniy Petrovich, is the resumption of Pyongyang's nuclear programme a real threat to peace or is it a kind of blackmail at state level, and if so to what end?

[Bazhanov] I wouldn't call it blackmail. The rivalry between the USA and North Korea has been going on for 10 years. At the start of the 1990s the Koreans did indeed commence a nuclear programme. Then they decided to halt it in exchange for a number of things from the USA - construction of nuclear reactors, deliveries of fuel oil, and so on. And throughout these years relations between the USA and the DPRK sometimes got better and sometimes worse. And each time they deteriorated, this kind of rivalry between them emerged. That is how I would describe it now. It is the latest round of the rivalry between the USA and DPRK. And I believe both parties are wrong.

[Presenter] If people's worst fears are borne out and talks to defuse the crisis fall through, is a preventive strike against North Korea's nuclear installations probable, particularly since the range of the missiles being developed in the DPRK would allow them to destroy targets in South Korea, Japan and China.

[Bazhanov] The North Koreans don't yet have long-range missiles. Of course, South Korea is next door, and tactical missiles are sufficient to destroy targets in South Korea. North Korea has had them and continues to have them, as does South Korea. I think that North Korea won't allow the USA to mount a strike against them. I think the rivalry will as usual end in talks and concessions on both sides.

[Presenter] But what, in the worse-case scenario, does the emergence of a new nuclear state on its Far Eastern borders signify for Russia, bearing in mind that totalitarian regimes are always unpredictable?

[Bazhanov] Well, naturally Russia categorically opposes the emergence of new nuclear powers, particularly next to its borders, and indeed it opposes them altogether, wherever such nuclear powers might appear - in the Near East, the Far East, in Latin America, and so on. We are against it. And I think that through joint efforts with China and other countries we shall prevent this from happening.

And in order to be able to influence North Korea, in particular, the USA needs to exercise flexibility towards North Korea, because every time it puts pressure on the North, the reaction of the Northerners is to create this nuclear truncheon in order somehow to protect themselves against possible attacks.

If North Korea is treated more flexibly, if North Korea is recognized diplomatically - something the Americans have not done yet - if trade with North Korea is developed, I think the North Koreans won't have any temptation to produce nuclear weapons.

[Presenter] Fine, but what steps should Moscow take at the present time, considering that its influence on Pyongyang for the time being is substantial - I stress, for the time being? And should Russia join those who are ready to support sanctions against the DPRK?

[Bazhanov] I think Russia should naturally take diplomatic steps, and no others. That means influencing North Korea, influencing the USA, influencing Japan and South Korea so that all these countries don't exacerbate the situation surrounding the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula, but sit down at the negotiating table.

I stress once again: it is time to recognize North Korea, develop links with it, and North Korea will begin to open up to the outside world and carry out reforms, and then there will be peace on the Korean Peninsula. As regards sanctions, I think we should do without sanctions and take the route of persuading all the warring or rather opposing sides to sit down at the negotiating table again, and try to find agreement.

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