#13
Moscow News
December 25-31, 2002
Russia's Motives in Kyrgyzstan
Russia's intent in building an air base in Kyrgyzstan is clearly to counterbalance U.S. forces stationed in that region
By Sanobar Shermatova

A Russian Air Force unit has been deployed at the Kant airfield located in a suburb of the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek. The first Russian base in that country, it will comprise 19 military and military-transport planes and two Mi- 8 helicopters; it will be manned by 700 servicemen and civilians. The unit is part of the collective rapid deployment forces of the six signatories to the Collective Security Treaty. The six, besides Russia and Kyrgyzstan, are Tajikistan, Armenia, Kazakhstan and Belarus. The Treaty's signatory nations have their headquarters in Bishkek. Russian warplanes appeared in the skies of Kyrgyzstan unexpectedly, as preparations were being made for President Vladimir Putin's visit to that country. Does the region really face a military threat that necessitates urgent military measures? There are two possible answers to this question.

Another Threat from Afghanistan?

At a December 11 press conference in Bishkek, Russian Security Council Secretary Vladimir Rushailo made a speech that can be taken to mean that Central Asia needs to bolster its security. Rushailo did not rule out the possibility of remnants of Afghan extremist groups penetrating into the Central Asian republics, noting that an incursion was possible in theory. "Our intention is to ward off such attempts as soon as they are conceived," he said. "This is the objective of our Air Force base in Kant." Rushailo cited a pronouncement by Kyrgyz President Askar Akayev: "If such forces had been available in the Central Asian region in 1999- 2000, many negative consequences could have been avoided."

The events alluded to by President Akayev are indirectly connected with Afghanistan. For two years gunmen of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) headed by Juma Namangani had been intruding into Kyrgyz and Uzbek territories from their mountain bases in Tajikistan. It was hitherto believed that some of the IMU gunmen had been killed in military operations in Afghanistan, while the rest had scattered. IMU leader Juma Namagani was rumored to have been killed in an air raid by allied forces in Afghanistan. Who, then, can infiltrate into Central Asia from a frontier area that is closely guarded by Afghanistan's Russia-friendly Northern Alliance?

It has been persistently rumored that Juma Namangani, declared dead and buried last year, appeared in the Afghan province of Badakhshan, and that he was recruiting gunmen to fight against the regime of Uzbek President Islam Karimov. Even if this is true and someone is reviving IMU forces in north Afghanistan, the gunmen cannot operate without help from Afghanistan's Tajik forces and their allies in Tajikistan, because the only way they can get to their native Uzbekistan is via Tajik territory.

Rivalry with the United States

The second possible answer to the question of whether the region could face fresh military threats is this: The air base in Kant marks Russia's return to Central Asia, and is not intended for fighting terrorists. Why should Russia bother to destroy the bases of the Uzbek Islamists, thereby making a gift to the Uzbek president, who is drifting further and further away from Moscow? Russia cites the need to combat terrorism, while its true aim is to meet geopolitical challenges in Central Asia, where the United States has been building up its presence.

U.S. aid to Kyrgyzstan will reach $92 million this year, most of it granted as military aid. The sum could be doubled next year.

The Russians occupied the Kant airfield as soon as they found out that the Americans were taking an interest in it. How has Russia paid Kyrgyzstan for the air base? According to Kyrgyz Finance Minister Bolot Abildayev, his country owes Russia a total of $171 million; of that, $58 million would have had to be paid in before December 2004, but will be rescheduled for payment over the next 20 years. The rest will be invested in environment protection and facilities for the Russian units at the Kant airfield.

Russia Finds a Niche

At long last Moscow appears to have found economic reasons for maintaining closer relations with Kyrgyzstan in areas vital to that country. For instance, Russia is most likely to grant favored treatment to migrant labor from Kyrgyzstan. According to Kyrgyz Prime Minister Nikolai Taneyev, the forced return of tens of thousands of migrants from Russia could trigger a social explosion.

Another area of bilateral cooperation is revival of Kyrgyzstan's fuel and energy complex, the most sensitive sphere of its economy. Erratic supplies of gas from Uzbekistan and coal from Kazakhstan create social tension. The two nations have reached agreement to jointly build plants to repair planes, helicopters and aircraft engines. Representatives of Siberia and the Ural region have made arrangements to buy cotton, woolen fabrics and antimony from Kyrgyzstan. These commodities have all but vanished from Russian and CIS markets. In exchange, Kyrgyzstan will get household chemicals, fertilizers, sawn timber, and medical equipment.

All those arrangements signify Russia's first steps to return to the Central Asian market. The move became possible after Kyrgyzstan made a commitment to transfer to Russia the controlling stock interests in several dozen enterprises. And after Russian Interior Minister Boris Gryzlov's Kyrgyz visit, it became clear that the Russian leadership was keen to safeguard Russian capital invested in Kyrgyzia. Now Moscow is eager to see political stability and predictability in that country, and Bishkek shares this desire.

BACK TO THE TOP    #237 CONTENTS    NEXT ARTICLE