#11
Russia's Putin strengthened by Chechen hostage crisis
December 18, 2002
AFP

Building ever closer bonds with the United States, President Vladimir Putin also emerged stronger at home this year after he decisively ended the three-day hostage nightmare of 800 Moscow theatre-goers.

No matter that some 129 of them died, most asphyxiated by Russian special forces who pumped a powerful sleeping gas to knock out the Chechen rebel hostage-takers, the president's ratings have soared to more than 80 percent.

"His resolute action in this crisis hugely boosted his ratings. The fact that a lot of people were killed in the rescue operation was quietly forgotten," said Yevgeny Volk, director of the Heritage Foundation. "It looks like he is unchallenged in the Russian political elite and if nothing happens Putin will have no problems being re-elected in 2004," he added.

The Russian leader's uncompromising stance towards Chechen separatists, whom he has branded as international terrorists, has won sympathy from US President George W. Bush who is fighting his own war on terror.

But Russia's relations with the European Union have worsened amid continued EU concern at human rights abuses by Russian troops in Chechnya and Moscow's refusal to seek a political solution to the more than three-year conflict.

Clumsy Russian attempts to get Chechen rebel envoy Akhmed Zakayev extradited from Denmark and then Britain on terrorism charges have further poisoned the atmosphere.

The Zakayev case marks "the start of a serious crisis in EU-Russia relations," said Viktor Kremenyuk, deputy head of the USA-Canada Institute.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair is Putin's strongest supporter in Europe but "even his closest friends there are beginning to abandon Putin," he warned.

The United States in contrast has rewarded Russia for its support since the September 11 attacks, allowing Putin to pursue his goal of integration with the West to modernise his energy-rich but ailing country.

Putin and Bush signed a radical nuclear arms reductions treaty in May slashing the arsenals of the two Cold War era foes by two-thirds, eagerly sought by cash-strapped Russia which can no longer afford maintaining such a stockpile.

The two presidents also launched an "energy dialogue" which should allow Russian firms to export more oil to the United States.

Russia also obtained market economy status, increasing access for its goods to the US market.

Moscow, a traditional ally of Baghdad, for its part agreed to back a tough new UN resolution threatening Iraq with "serious consequences" should it defy UN weapons inspections although it still opposes US military action.

"Putin managed to cement his relationship with the United States. It is the most important thing for him," said Yevgeny Volk.

"He found in President Bush understanding of his policies in Chechnya and he provided his support for the resolution on Iraq although he still has differences with the United States," the analyst added.

At a broader international level, NATO and Russia set up a new joint council, giving Moscow an equal voice in decisions on such issues as terrorism, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, arms control, crisis management and military cooperation.

This softened the blow from the Atlantic alliance's decision to take in seven former Communist republics, including the ex-Soviet Baltic states, confirmed at a NATO summit in Prague last month.

But despite Putin's successful rapprochement with the United States and his domestic popularity, the Russian leader has not tackled key problems blocking Russia's economic development, including structural reform and corruption, commentators warn.

Long-awaited measures such as the reform of the electricity and gas monopolies have been postponed and Western investors complain that a weak and corrupt judiciary mean there is no rule of law.

"The economic situation is stable. But this stability is not thanks to structural economic reforms but to high oil prices," said Andrei Ryabov from the Moscow Carnegie Centre.

The clan of Russian business tycoons, known as "oligarchs", who built fortunes under former president Boris Yeltsin by taking control of choice state assets, have faded into the shadows but still wield immense power.

"As long as stability counts the most for Putin, you can't do anything about corruption. That would only be possible if you give up the old balance to get these groups out of power," Ryabov commented.

Meanwhile, the Russian army continues to bleed casualties from the war in breakaway Chechnya which has turned into a hopeless quagmire.

Putin, who staked his presidency on crushing Chechen separatism, has become increasingly touchy about the subject. At a Russia-EU summit in November, he told a French reporter who questioned the Russian military crackdown to come to Moscow and get "circumcised."

But sooner or later, Russia will have to face up to reality.

"It's a classic guerrilla war with the whole population on the side of the militants. At some point the Kremlin will have to reconcile itself to the fact that it's unwinnable," said Volk.

BACK TO THE TOP    #236 CONTENTS    NEXT ARTICLE