#8
Parlamentskaya Gazeta
December 11, 2002
EXPERT OPINION
NATO exists to keep Russia on the alert
Author: Olga Ivanova
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]

NATO SECRETARY GENERAL GEORGE ROBERTSON IS VISITING RUSSIA. FOR RUSSIA, NATO REMAINS AN IMPORTANT - THOUGH NOT THE ONLY - INTERNATIONAL STRUCTURE FOR ENSURING SECURITY. HOWEVER, REAL MILITARY COOPERATION SHOULD SUPPORT THE DIALOG BETWEEN MOSCOW AND BRUSSELS.

A two-day international conference on "Russia-NATO: prospects of cooperation following the Prague summit" was held in Moscow on the eve of NATO Secretary General George Robertson's visit to Russia. The conference was organized by Institute of Applied International Studies (IAIS), which is preparing practical recommendations related to issues of Russia's foreign policy and urgent problems of the up-to-date international relations.

At the conference, over 100 leading Russian and foreign experts in the sphere of international relations discussed the problems impeding progressive development of Russia-NATO cooperation. Presidential aide Sergei Yaztrzhemsky, Duma deputies Andrei Kokoshin and Alexei Arbatov, Sergei Rogov, director of US- Canada Institute, US Ambassador to Russia Alexander Vershbow, Gerhart von Moltke, the permanent German representative for NATO, representatives of the Foreign Ministry, the General Staff and Defense Ministry of Russia and various international foundations.

Over the course of two days, the experts were discussing NATO's role under the current circumstances and ways of developing Russia- NATO partnership and cooperation following the Prague summit, which totaled the further fate of the Alliance. Plans of NATO eastward expansion were only declared after the Warsaw Pact organization, the socialistic counterweight to NATO had ceased to be. The Batic states, as well as Slovenia, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Romania were given invitations to join NATO. In the words of NATO Secretary General George Robertson, in two years, the number of NATO member states will increase from 19 to 26 and the responsibility area will be expanded by almost 600,000 sq km, where 46 million people reside. In the opinion of experts, who took the floor on the conference, this quantitative increase will neither impart the economic might, nor the political prestige to the Alliance. As a matter of fact, NATO spokespersons admit that joining of the three Baltic states to the Alliance mostly suits political, rather than military-strategic goals.

As many experts noted, on losing a potential enemy - the Warsaw Pact organization, the Alliance to a considerable extent lost the essence of its existence. Having recognized international terrorism as its enemy, NATO is attempting to restructure its military machinery to counter it, carry out various peacekeeping operations, surmount emergencies, etc. The program of deep NATO transformation was outlined at the Prague summit. A proposal on the creation of NATO response forces, a sort of "expeditionary corps" (with the strength of 21,000), which could be deployed at any place of the world within the shortest time possible, by the end of 2006 was adopted at the US's initiative.

Representatives of the bloc take Russia as a very important component of the new security system. In the words of George Robertson, "if before Russia was a part of the problem for the west, now it is a part of settling the problem." The Rome Russia-NATO Relations: New Quality declaration initiated a new phase of cooperation.

Speaking at the conference, Sergei Yastrzhemsky noted that as a matter of fact, Russia and NATO member states are facing the same stack of security challenges. Transnational threats are among them: global terrorism, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, as well as threats generated by regional instability and aggressive nationalism. Under these circumstances, Russia and NATO found organizational conditions for joint work. In Yastrzhemsky's words, "we are involved in full-fledged partnership with NATO on a broad agenda. NATO Secretary General George Robertson's visit to Moscow is another confirmation of that fact." He said, "the countries endeavoring to join NATO are proceeding from their psychological complexes, tracing back to the past. However, joining NATO will induce the Baltic states to change their attitude toward the Russian-speaking population."

On the contrary, Alexander Konovalov, president of the Institute of Strategic Assessments, thinks that which and how many former Soviet republics will join the Alliance in the future is unimportant for Russia, since the Alliance is overcoming a deep crisis. Having lost its common enemy, NATO has considerably decreased "the admission barrier." In Konovalov's opinion, the Baltic states, the armies of which fail to reach NATO standards, according to assessments of military experts, is a demonstrative fact.

Sergei Rogov, director of the US-Canada Institute holds to an interesting viewpoint in this case. In his opinion, expanding eastward, the Alliance is becoming one of the largest consumers of the Soviet and, nowadays, Russian armaments. In his words, up to 30% of the former Soviet-produced armaments, owned by NATO now, could be updated. "Thousands of samples of armaments are in proper condition - they are fourth-generation, which could be updated to generation four- and-a-half. In my opinion, this is quite a different outlook when the Russian defense industries take notice of the West as a source of their income," he said. The choice of whether to make a transition to Western-made arms or to upgrade their existing arms is up to the new NATO members.

Both Russian and NATO experts speaking at the conference assume that development of the military-technical cooperation could make Russia-NATO rapprochement irreversible. For instance, US Ambassador to Russia Alexander Vershbow said that Russia and NATO have a single goal - to construct a joint security system. "Should NATO and Russia be forming military alliances for joint combating terrorism? Should NATO be creating a joint anti-missile defense system with Russia? Is Russia assigned any role in the creation of the NATO rapid response forces, which could also stimulate a reform in the Russian armed forces? I would give a positive answer to all of these questions," Alexander Vershbow said.

Nowadays, activities of our mission in Brussels has been resumed and the NATO mission has been opened in Moscow, Alexei Arbatov, deputy chairman of the Duma defense committee said, but the thing doesn't go beyond seminars and discussions; no real military cooperation is available, as it should be between the sides, which are not enemies but have their armed forces in proximity to one another. The matter doesn't go beyond phrases about joint combating terrorism. Therefore, in the opinion of Vadim Razumovsky, director of Institute of Applied International Studies, most importantly the former enemies and current partners should overcome mutual distrust in relations. "NATO agrees that distrust used to take place, but refuses admitting that it is still present," director of the IAIS said. It was him to draw the brief conclusions of the detailed conference the international experts held in Moscow: "The main conclusion for Russia is that NATO remains an important, even though not the only, international structure for ensuring security. Firstly, it means a necessity for further consolidation of the political dialog within the framework of the Council Russia-NATO; secondly, real military cooperation should support the dialog between Moscow and Brussels."

(Translated by Andrei Ryabochkin)

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