#11
South China Morning Post
December 12, 2002
Putin's global game: containing the US
By Uday Bhaskar
Uday Bhaskar is deputy director of India's Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses

Russian President Vladimir Putin's one-day summit with Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee consolidated ties through eight agreements, most notably the Delhi Declaration.

The New Delhi leg of Mr Putin's visit followed his trip to Beijing. In both capitals, the concept of multipolarity was deliberated in addition to bilateral issues.

Predictably, the focus of the India visit was on the need to strengthen the global campaign against terrorism. Both Moscow and New Delhi were giving voice to concerns derived from their own experiences - the terrorist attack on the Indian Parliament last December and Russia's continuing battle with the Chechens. Compared with the US giving a high priority to Iraq, Moscow and Delhi have expressed concerns about Pakistan in the war on terrorism. What is relevant is the manner in which Mr Putin highlighted certain issues that could have a bearing on the US-led post September 11 global strategic framework and major power relations.

One caveat is in order - that of the purported "strategic triangle" between Russia, China and India, and the attendant dust that this formulation has generated. The phrase was first mooted in the mid-1990s by Russia's then foreign minister, Yevgeny Primakov, to usher in a balance to the United States, but neither Beijing nor New Delhi were particularly enthused. It was only in September this year that the foreign ministers - Russia's Igor Ivanov, China's Tang Jiaxuan and India's Yashwant Sinha, met in New York but this was more tentative than substantive.

The Delhi Declaration and related statements by Mr Putin made all the right references and followed a familiar groove but the nuances were significant. Russia and India reiterated their traditional bonds of friendship and strategic convergence, which has its genesis in the Cold War decades and the reality that Moscow and Delhi do not pose any anxiety for each other.

The Delhi Declaration dwelt on the "evolution of a new world order, which would be stable, secure, equitable and sustainable" and more importantly "based on the respect for the principles of the UN Charter and international law".

The step to a "multipolar world" and a "new co-operative security order" that would be predicated on "lower levels of armaments, and strengthens disarmament goals" is a logical extension leading to a fine line on Iraq. This saw both countries reiterating their support to the UN Security Council resolutions but still exhorting a settlement through diplomatic means.

The other deals on trade, technology and economic co-operation complemented the strategic declaration but no major defence deals were announced.

A decade ago, trade between Russia and India peaked at US$ 5.5 billion (HK$ 42.9 billion). This has declined to under US$ 1.5 billion. In contrast Sino -Rusian trade has increased rapidly and is expected to exceed US$ 12 billion. As in the case with Asean, China's trade profile is far more robust than that of India's, and this defines the relevance of India in the eyes of its main partners.

India is not in the same league as China for growth but traditionally, Moscow has been wary of Beijing. Even now, there is considerable anxiety in Moscow's conservative constituency about the prudence of Russia providing the military muscle it does to China. The China-Russia relationship is unlikely to acquire the strategic contour and the absence-of-suspicion index that the India-Russia relationship inherently exudes.

Yet during Mr Putin's visit to China, President Jiang Zemin pledged that "China and Russia will be good neighbours, friends, and partners forever". This rare Chinese exuberance may have encouraged Mr Putin to say that the bilateral relationship had "reached a quite high level". But then, Mr Jiang has also described the US-China relationship as "constructive and co -operative".

Conceptual convergences for Russia, China and India include terrorism impelled by religious extremism. These states are also grappling with the surge of globalisation. At one level, supporting the idea of a multipolar world order and multilateral institutions becomes a means of "containing" the US, and it is this refrain that characterised Mr Putin's visit to Delhi.

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