#9
Kennan Institute
Event summary
October 28, 2002
Impact of Public Opinion and Elections on Russian
Foreign Policy, 1996-2000
In a recent seminar at the Kennan Institute, William Zimmerman, Professor of
Political Science at the University of Michigan, discussed the role that public
opinion and election outcomes have on Russian foreign policy. Zimmerman drew his
remarks from the research that he gathered for his recently released book, The
Russian People and Foreign Policy: Russian Elites and Mass Perspectives,
1993-2000. The results of this research illustrate the evolution of Russian
politics and provide better understanding for U.S.-Russian relations. Zimmerman
explained that his research was organized around three central themes;
consequences for Russian foreign policy following the political/economic
collapse of Soviet Union, possible links between political economy and foreign
policy preferences, and the extent to which Western perceptions and foreign
policy apply to the Russian Federation.
Gathered from mass surveys and elite interviews conducted from 1993-99, the
data used in Zimmerman's research compared mass and elite perspectives on
foreign policy issues. Zimmerman concluded that mass publics are more
isolationist, meaning they are less likely to support the use of international
force or participate economically in the global economy. Interviews with Russian
elites showed that most qualify as internationalists, meaning that they want to
cooperate economically, but would not hesitate to use force in an international
dispute. The data showed that elite preferences are systemically related to
East-West political and economic interactions.
According to Zimmerman, the arguments among realists about the chaotic or
irrational role of mass publics does not appear to apply to the Russians, who he
claims have shown prudence on a number of occasions. Zimmerman continued that
the Russian public seems to have specific opinions on foreign policy issues that
they are able to link with the policy orientations of Russian presidential
candidates. Using data from the 1996 and 2000 elections, Zimmerman illustrated
how foreign policy orientation could be used to predict how people would vote in
the presidential election.
Zimmerman noted that elites have always been more supportive of liberal
democracy than mass publics, but recent data shows that the Russian masses are
becoming less supportive of democratic reform. In surveys taken from 1995-2000,
survey respondents who thought that a liberal democracy was the right political
system for Russia dropped from 50 percent to roughly 30 percent. Judging by the
responses of most Russians, it appears that most would prefer a political
democracy, but remain unwilling to sacrifice the social supports that were
present under the Soviet system.
Zimmerman concluded by speculating about the recent hostage crisis in Moscow,
and its effects on Russian politics. He stated that the reaction of Russian
elites and mass public would largely depend on the total number of people who
were harmed by the gas. Perhaps more importantly, Zimmerman continued, is the
idea that in the wake of last week's events, a division over reaching a
political settlement with Chechnya may arise between elites and the mass public.
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