#10
The Russia Journal
November 15-21, 2002
Russia and George Bush's America unrestrained
By Peter Lavelle
(Peter Lavelle is a Moscow-based analyst and author of Peter Lavelles Russia Report, available at www.russiareport.ru)

The humiliating defeat the U.S. Democratic Party received last week during what Americans call the U.S. mid-term elections presents President Vladimir Putins Russia with a new "correlation of forces." President George Bush now has congressional backing to rule in a way unheard of since the 1930s. For at least the next two years, American foreign policy will truly be one of Bush design.

The resistance the Democrats have made to the administrations goals vis-a-vis Iraq, Israel, China and even Russia could very well evaporate in January of next year. Issues that concern the world community, like the environment, will certainly not be on Bushs agenda. And Putins attempt to create an alliance with the United States just got harder. But finding Russias place in the world might have become slightly easier.

Rhetorically, Bush has been receptive of Putins overtures and the latters specific interpretation of the "war on terrorism." Putins "first call" on 9/ll and the trip to the presidential residence in Crawford helped him more than Bush. At the same time, Bushs party has been less approachable, and, practically, Bush owes more to his political backers than to any foreign leader.

It will be interesting to see how the influence of Americas religious right will work on the administration. Its almost messianic interpretation of Americas role in world affairs will certainly be of importance and its view of international relations is clearly at odds with most of the worlds, including that of Americas allies.

Basically, it is a worldview that sees America first, and is very unilateralist in character. What will most likely occur, is that the U.S. perspective will become less about Americas place in the world than about the worlds importance in relation to American interests. The concept of multilateralism, favored among the Russian foreign-policy elite, will most likely be mothballed for a while.

The implementation of National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rices vision of the United States as "a very special country" is now within Bushs grasp. Domestic dissent on a foreign policy that was deemed too unilateralist was rendered politically meaningless last week. Even Secretary of State Colin Powell seems to have given up on attempting to cool the hottest of the heads around him. The implications of this could be profound.

The now-defunct meaningful political opposition in the United States will be missed by many in the time to come although, ultimately, this is just what American Democrats and those voices in disagreement beyond Americas borders need for a legitimate opposition to come about. The mistake the Democrats made was to attempt to present themselves as a variant of the president not an alternative. When they pick up the pieces after this unprecedented setback, this is a lesson that should serve as a strategy for the future.

Putins Russia is in an odd position, though not necessary a weaker one. Putin has a number of cards to play cards that interest the United States. Putin, in a very adroit manner, has not aligned Russia with any state, seeking to be on the best possible terms with any country or bloc of countries receptive to Russian interests. The "Axis of Evil" is a poor mans attempt to define what threatens humanity, and the members of this very "Axis of Evil" are and will continue to be Russias trading partners. Irrespective of U.S. designs, no one can disagree that Putin can play an important role as a mediator for countries America refuses to have contact with which is quite a few while Putin will entertain just about anybody who is not anti-Russian. Russia desires to be a bridge, not a barrier, to solving the worlds problems. It may be cynical or out of weakness, but Putin is playing his hand well.

Petroleum is another concern the United States and Russia have in common. The U.S.-Russia relationship will likely become more clear about the price and supply of oil than it was before the elections. Russia has the oil, and American consumers demand cheap energy and the government needs a simple, cheap way to pull the U.S. economy out of recession. The Bush administrations interest in Russia has only ever really been about oil and the fear of old Soviet weapons of mass destruction going up for sale in the worlds black market. Too much concern for the former at the expense of the latter will, more likely than not, become evident some time in the relatively near future.

Pragmatism, self-interest and realpolitik in foreign policy won out last Tuesday in the United States. And this outcome is not, most likely, lamented by Putin and Russias moneyed interests: The Bush folks are not interested in the development of civil society in Russia or civil society in general, and one has to wonder if the thugs who surround Bush even understand the term.

Keeping the focus on Russias enemies domestic and foreign deflects Putins need to attend to the countrys imperative to make Russia a safer place to live. The necessity of doing this was made painfully apparent during the Moscow hostage crisis, and Americas power in the world does not aid this important enterprise.

We are entering the New World Order possibly the inevitable outcome of the Cold War. This may be a world in which winner takes all. It is regrettable that this new order may well be in only one countrys interests thing could so easily be different.

Hoping for a different and reformed Russia does not appear to be on the Bush agenda. Russia and America will almost certainly suffer as a result.

BACK TO THE TOP    #232 CONTENTS    NEXT ARTICLE