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November 11, 2002
AMERICA HAS TRAMPLED ON THE DEMOCRATS
The U.S. Republicans: a chance for Russia
Author: Anastasia Skogoreva
Author: Vadim Saranov
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]

THE US CONGRESS ELECTIONS RESULTED IN VICTORY FOR THE REPUBLICANS. FOR RUSSIA THIS MEANS AN OPPORTUNITY TO CONTINUE THE BREAKTHROUGH IN RELATIONS WITH THE US THAT HAS BEEN ACHIEVED SINCE THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION CAME TO POWER. THE JACKSON-VANIK AMENDMENT MAY FINALLY BE REPEALED.

The U.S. Congress elections resulted in victory for the Republicans. This means US foreign policy will remain unchanged. And that suits Russia quite well today.

The news of the U.S. election results is more likely positive than negative for Russia. And that is not only because it may not now be afraid of rising criticism over Chechnya. US-Russian relations experienced an unprecedented upsurge in the years of the Republican administration rule. It is the Bush administration that recognized Russia as a market economy and thereby actually forced the European Union to make an analogous decision. It is Republicans in the government and parliament that occupied the most consistent position during the recent tragic events in Moscow, making the terrorists fully responsible for death of the people. Finally, it is the Bush administration that first in the history of economic cooperation between Russia and the US spoke up about the possibility of Russian oil supplies to the American commodity markets. Apparently, this ambitious project will be quite difficult to carry out because of Russia's lacking the required infrastructure to transport oil to the US. However, a positive factor is already the circumstance that this possibility is considered and there is political will on both sides to carry out that project. It is therefore really possible to say that a breakthrough was made in every direction in the years of junior Bush's presidency: both in politics and in the sphere of economic cooperation between the two countries.

Of course, the Republican administration has not managed to eliminate every difficulty in relations between the US and Russia. One of the main "stumbling blocks" is the ill-fated Jackson-Vanik amendment, which is still in effect. Officially, the amendment has not been repealed yet, despite repeated appeals from Bush. Observers emphasize: the president did not manage to gain his objective because the Senate was to solve this problem - the Senate, where the Democrats had a one-vote majority until election day.

There is every reason to believe that now, after their win, the Republicans will repeal the discriminatory amendment, especially since the administration is more interested than ever before in economic and political cooperation with Russia. Fortunately for us, right now relations between the US and the petroleum-exporting Arab countries are experiencing the most acute crisis over the last three decades. The US urge to find an "alternate oilfield" in Russia that is one of the world's biggest oil exporters is quite explicable against this background.

However, the two countries have not reached a full understanding on the latter issue yet. The Republican administration declared Iraq and North Korea rogue states. Russia has good relationships with both states, being bound to Iraq with common economic interests at that. The structures that work currently with Iraqi oil include those of Transneft, Rosneft, Slavneft, Zarubezhneft, Sibneft, LUKOIL, Mashinimport, Nafta-Moskva, Emercom (a company of Russia's Civil Defense Ministry), etc. Their losses in case Saddam Hussein's government is overthrown cannot but worry the Russian government. Besides, Moscow is obviously afraid that in case of victory over Iraq the US will gain access to the huge oil reserves of that country - they reach 9% of the world's reserves, according to expert estimates. In this case out of one of the biggest oil importers the US may turn into a leading oil power that will not only be able to export oil in quantities it needs, but also bring down market prices. It is clear that a similar outlook is far from being radiant for Russia whose economic well-being is still based on trade in energy resources.

However, the US and Russia are most likely to have an "Iraq for Chechnya" deal. Russia will compromise on Iraq, America on Chechnya.

There is another reason for joy. Judging by the "Florida token", George W. Bush has a good chance of being reelected as president in 2004. At the same time, few doubt that Vladimir Putin will be elected for a second term. So the leaders of the two countries can launch partnership relations on a really long-term basis. For it is always better to deal with someone you already know.

(Translated by P. Pikhnovsky )

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