#3
Moskovsky Komsomolets
No. 244
October 30, 2002
PUTIN'S PRESTIGE WILL INCREASE MANIFOLD
Interview with a political analyst, director of the Center of Political Technologies, Igor BUNIN, by the MK correspondent
Lyuba SHARII.

The American history is clearly divided now into the "before the 11 September" and "after the 11 September" periods. The same, apparently, is going to happen to the Russian history. There are no magic means to change the situation in Chechnya overnight any more. The negotiations themselves do not guarantee anything, unfortunately. Today we have to choose between the bad and the worst methods of solving the problem. But what can the Kremlin come up with? What has to be done in order to avoid new acts of terror?

Question: What changes could we expect in the state policy against terrorism?

Answer: It's going to become more stringent. Russian society strictly opposes any forms of terrorism nowadays, and from this standpoint it will be even more willing, compared to American society, to accept the less democratic order in the country.

Besides, there's no doubt that the existing informal restrictions will become legalized.

Question: Wouldn't this "tightening of screws" meet an opposition in society?

Answer: Our society wants the "older brother," the father of the nation, the man capable of taking the responsibility to solve our problems. All our sociological research points out at this phenomenon. Society itself (meaning on its own) doesn't know what it wants. It's more of a society of subordinates rather than a society of citizens. That's why it is willing to let somebody else make the decisions. There is such a man. He was the one who said: "We've accomplished the impossible..." Nowadays, Putin is considered a miraculous savior even more than before. Society is ready to put the responsibility on his shoulders - that's why it wouldn't oppose the introduction of restrictions on formal freedoms. Because those restrictions wouldn't meet the opposition, they might be rather insignificant. The authorities won't have to put a collar on society because the use of arm-twisting and handcuffs is necessary only in case of resistance!

Question: As far as I understand, you think that Putin only improved his image after the terrorist act? And even increased his prestige?

Answer: He has doubled it, or even tripled! Earlier, society sometimes showed its doubts in the ratings - he would lose five points and then get them back... he'd lost points after the "Kursk" tragedy... But this time, the fact that he took the full responsibility for the outcome of the assault and almost miraculously got out from an extremely difficult situation with flying colors (let's not forget that the major tragedy we were all dreading - the explosion - has been avoided), will certainly boost his popularity manifold!

Question: It's obvious that we should expect major changes in our policy toward Chechnya. What kind of changes, exactly?

Answer: As a result of the latest events, Maskhadov, formerly the only legitimate representative of Chechen rebels, is now dead as a political figure because he is considered, at least in the public eye, as one of the organizers of the terrorist act.

Even Nemtsov announced that he had lost any respect toward Maskhadov! What does it mean? That there is nobody to negotiate with! Besides, any talks even remotely resembling Khasavyurt are impossible, simply from the psychological standpoint. Certainly, some sort of "reserved" formula for a dialogue will always be at hand, but, in my opinion, the choice will be similar to the one we had in 1999 - either to use force to establish order in Chechnya, or to continue with the appointment of Chechen natives to the positions of power in the republic. The latter solution, after the recent events when Kadyrov, in the eyes of the public at least, took a rather cowardly stand, will not be too popular for a while.

Question: How the recent events might actually help solving the Chechen problem, which has been neglected for so long?

Answer: Before the terrorist act, public opinion was leaning toward a compromise. All surveys showed that the use of force was becoming less and less acceptable. At the same time, the Chechen problem had been pushed away from the focus of public consciousness, but now it is the center of public interest again.

And from this standpoint, some consequences of those terrible events could be helpful - I mean we'll all remember now that this problem has to be discussed and eventually solved.

Question: Many people are afraid now that the latest events would whip up nationalistic sentiments in society. All year long it has already been a real problem - what with the violence and posters with nationalistic content...

Answer: Those attitudes have been growing since early 90's. But we have to remember that without an official support from the state they wouldn't work. Xenophobia has always been suppressed by the state in Russia. There are lower- and middle-level governmental structures, in police, for example, that carry those nationalistic attitudes. But, overall, the Russian State is against the "pogrom" syndrome, and that's the first restricting factor. The second is the fact that those events to a certain degree returned the dignity to the Russian nation (after all, we stopped the terrorists). So, the feeling of national pride will definitely play as the restricting factor.

On the other hand, the label "individuals of Caucasian nationality" (by the way, I first heard this expression in the late 80's) is so deeply ingrained in our flesh and blood that to get rid of it completely would be simply impossible.

Question: Can you predict any changes in our foreign policy?

Answer: I think it'll become more offensive. Our President's certain attitude that he is right and everybody else is wrong might be somehow reflected in Russia's position on the international arena. Of course, it doesn't mean that we'll behave in the same way the U.S. did after September 11, simply because Russia and the United States are very different countries and we don't claim any dominance in the world. Russia will simply increase its participation in the antiterrorist coalition and use the latest experience to claim that "we have the right, too". It doesn't mean, though, that we won't compromise with the USA on the Iraqi issue. But if we do, it'll be a strictly pragmatic move (meaning only after we are sure that our interests are protected), and not just because we are partners in the fight against terrorism.

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