#2
BBC
24 October 2002
Analysis: Chechen danger for Putin
By Stephen Mulvey
BBC News Online
Russian President Vladimir Putin was elected president as the man Russians
thought could sort out Chechnya once and for all.
The horror of the Moscow hostage-taking therefore puts him in a difficult
situation. Even with his sky-high approval ratings, it's a crisis that it would
be dangerous for him to be seen to mishandle.
However, the fact that the conflict - which long ago ceased to be a daily
concern of ordinary Russians - has now come to Moscow, could also work for him
rather than against him.
For some it will confirm the view that a hard line was, and is, justified.
This was the effect of a series of apartment block bombings before troops were
sent back to Chechnya in 1999.
But others will inevitably ask why, more than three years later, the war has
not yet been won.
Humiliation
The incident, along with some other recent catastrophes, including the
repeated downing of military helicopters in Chechnya itself, makes a mockery of
Kremlin pronouncements that the war is over.
The gap between rhetoric and reality is dangerously reminiscent of the
Yeltsin era, as is the spectacle of the might of the Russian state paralysed and
humiliated by the action of a small group of guerrillas.
How did a group of Chechen fighters travel to Moscow, and move, heavily armed
through the city, without getting found out, or stopped? There is no easy way
for Mr Putin, who was a security chief before he became a politician, to answer
this.
Some liberal voices in Russia will also ask why no serious attempt has been
made to reach a negotiated solution with the rebels, but since the start of the
Putin presidency in 2000 they have been an isolated and downtrodden group.
Disaster for Maskhadov
In one way, the incident will help Mr Putin, as it appears to support his
view of the Chechen rebels as terrorists.
Russian citizens needed no confirmation of this, and some foreign governments
had already come to the view that there were links between some of the Chechen
rebels and al-Qaeda.
Mr Putin has never let foreign disapproval of Russian tactics in Chechnya tie
his hands, but Russian forces in the breakaway republic may now be even more
determined to act as they see fit.
For the Chechen rebels themselves - at least the more moderate elements,
including the elected Chechen President Aslan Maskhadov - the incident is a
public relations disaster.
For a long time, Western governments continued to urge Moscow to open
negotiations with Mr Maskhadov, though less forcefully after 11 September 2001.
Already the US has ceased to recommend him as a suitable negotiating partner,
and other countries are now increasingly likely to take the same view.
Jihad funding
The fact that the Chechen gang leader now holding hostages in Moscow almost
certainly acted without Mr Maskhadov's approval, and that his spokesmen are
vigorously disowning him, is unlikely to cut much ice.
Mr Maskhadov has long been weakened by the fact that the main financial
backing for the rebel cause comes from the Muslim world supporting a jihad, or
holy war.
His more radical Islamic field commanders have correspondingly benefited.
From the funding point of view, the seizure of the Moscow theatre may be good
publicity, prompting sympathisers to dig deeper into their pockets.
One possible upshot is the strengthening of hardliners on both sides, and the
further weakening of any prospect for peace.
BACK TO THE TOP  #228 CONTENTS NEXT ARTICLE
|
