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High abstention could scupper Russian census findings

MOSCOW, Oct 16 (AFP) - Russia's first post-Soviet census drew to a close Wednesday with experts warning that the high rate of abstention due to traditional mistrust of the authorities may jeopardize the validity of the count.

Around 70 percent of the country's 144 million population had taken part in the headcount by late Tuesday, although participation in the major cities such as Moscow and Saint Petersburg was much higher, officials said.

On Saturday, the head of the state statistics committee Vladimir Sokolin warned that an abstention rate of more than 10 percent could render the exercise useless.

"Ten percent is too significant a margin of error," Interfax quoted him as saying.

Despite extensive publicity and the best efforts of some 600,000 census takers, backed up by 200,000 policemen providing support and security, there have been widespread reports of Russians refusing to open their doors and taking other forms of actions to avoid answering the census.

Tatyana Matsuk, an independent analyst, said she doubted that even the 70 percent figure put out by the authorities was reliable.

"For many people, avoiding the census is a form of protest. It's a way of snubbing the authorities without fear of consequences. This is happening especially in towns and regions which still have no heating, although winter has started, or other social problems," she said.

Matsuk said she believed as many as 50 percent of the population may have avoided the census, or given false or misleading information.

"I've heard of people answering the question about their ethnic background by saying they are hobbits, or elves," she said. "It's their way of saying the census is not important for them, it's a game, or a play as in the theatre."

Apart from questions of age, marital status and education, respondents were being asked to give information about their nationality and ethnic background, but not their religion, and about their sources of income but not how much it amounts to.

Officials have stressed that the census information, particularly data concerning income, is being treated confidentially, but many Russians have expressed fears that the details could be handed over to the police or tax authorities.

Around 200 census takers have been attacked by dogs, according to ITAR-TASS quoting officials who said that the state could file charges against the animals' owners.

Some Russians have taken elaborate precautions to avoid being counted. One Moscow landlord ordered that the front door of his building remain locked for the duration of the census and set up guards to ensure that only residents entered.

In the face of such non-cooperation, some census takers have been asked to fill out the census forms as they see fit if no information is forthcoming, Matsuk said.

"In my view the census will not be valid. In any case, the questions it asks are so general that the information gathered will be inadequate for significant statistical research."

The count will provide useful information in some areas, she noted, citing preliminary findings released Tuesday that indicated that Russia's prison population was 919,000, including 130,000 people in preventive detention, and that the number of homeless was around four million.

Another early finding announced by the authorities was that the population of the war-torn republic of Chechnya was higher than expected, at 1,090,000 people.

"The government ordered the census because they wanted to understand the situation better. But they will only get part of the picture. Maybe half," Matsuk said.

"It's still a bit like Soviet times, when there was this saying: the people pretend to work, and the government pretends to pay them. Now, they're pretending to hold a census."

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