#9
Moscow Times
October 10, 2002
Brinkmanship in Georgia
By Pavel Felgenhauer

The Russian military, fighting a protracted, seemingly unwinnable anti-guerrilla campaign in Chechnya, has repeatedly accused the Georgian authorities of supporting the rebels. Moscow claims that Chechen fighters recuperate in Georgia after raids on Russia, that Georgia is the main conduit for weapons and supplies to get into Chechnya and that the Georgian authorities have direct links with warlords accused by Moscow of involvement in terrorist activities.

Independent observers believe that the supply line from Georgia is not in fact the main conduit providing the separatist resistance in Chechnya with weapons and munitions. From late October until late May the high mountain passes across the Caucasus used by the rebels are covered in three-meter-deep snow, and thus impassable. But the rebels continue to harass Russian troops in Chechnya relentlessly without any noticeable seasonal intermissions.

Apparently, the main source of weapons for the rebels is the troops themselves. Low-paid, corrupt officers steal and sell weapons and military equipment, more or less to any bidder, including terrorists and rebels. Last June, Russia's top uniformed military commander, First Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Kvashnin, publicly acknowledged that ever-increasing corruption and criminalization have left our military in a "post-critical state."

Still, Georgia has indeed been used by the Chechen rebels as an operational and supply base. This week in Tbilisi, Georgian officials -- including deputy speaker of parliament Eldar Shengelaya, former speaker Zurab Zhvania, and the chief of the border guards Valery Chkheidze -- not only acknowledged that Georgia had allowed Chechen rebels to establish camp on its territory, but also told me that the authorities had established close contacts with them and that this was "a grave mistake." Shengelaya and Zhvania also said that criminals have infiltrated the centers of official power in a major way.

Corrupt Georgian officials from the Interior Ministry and the intelligence services deliberately handed over control of the Pankisi Gorge, northeast of Tbilisi, to organized crime groups. Pankisi was turned into a safe base for kidnappers, drug traffickers and also Chechen rebels. The Georgian police only kept a checkpoint at the entrance to the gorge to collect bribes from criminals and rebels moving in and out.

Now things have changed for the better, say Georgian politicians. The rebels have virtually all moved back north to continue the guerrilla war in Russia, while criminals in Pankisi are being rounded up by a newly reformed Interior Ministry. But Moscow has not been impressed and last month President Vladimir Putin threatened to use military force unilaterally to destroy "terrorist bases" in Georgia.

Only last week, reliable sources in Moscow told me that a "preventive" military operation, involving bombing raids and the landing of up to two battalions of paratroopers, could begin within days if Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze did not make serious concessions during the summit this week in Chisinau, Moldova. In Tbilisi, local journalists and politicians took the threat very seriously, and at the summit it seems Shevardnadze did make concessions that pleased Putin and somewhat defused the situation. But the root cause of the Russia-Georgia rift -- Moscow's open support of separatist movements in breakaway Abkhazia and South Ossetia -- has not been resolved, so the Chisinau understanding may not last long.

Tbilisi insists all Chechen rebels have left Georgian territory, while Russia claims that more fighters are preparing to cross the border once again. Georgia has handed over five alleged Chechen terrorists that it arrested last August. Moscow demands the immediate extradition of at least eight more men, but Shevardnadze is reported to have once again postponed the extradition, citing possible human rights violations.

A Georgian colonel told me in Tbilisi, "we never took seriously Moscow's threats of a massive pre-emptive military strike, involving paratroopers, since Russia today doesn't have such capabilities."

Moscow is playing a game in Georgia, applying pressure to get the Chechen rebels out and to force Tbilisi to go back on its decision to close Russian military bases. Georgia in turn is balancing on the verge of open confrontation, hoping Russia will change its stand on Abkhazia. One can only hope the whole thing will not come tumbling down, causing a senseless war that no one is prepared to fight or win.

Pavel Felgenhauer is an independent defense analyst

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