#11
Moscow News
October 9-15, 2002
Window of Opportunity for the Russian Bear
Disenchanted with money, the church, and the state, the Americans have come to trust in Russia
By Ilya Baranikas

The United States has changed so much in the past year that at times I don't seem to recognize the country. The upheaval brought about big shifts. During the year, since the fatal 9/11 attack, American society has been doing a rethink on such apparently unshakable public institutions as the Catholic Church, the FBI, the CIA, the world's major auditing companies, the stock exchange, and so forth.

There Was a Precedent, but It Was Different Then

As far as the economy is concerned, the reasons for the distrust are easy to explain. What sort of a reputation can business possibly have when the CEOs of major corporations are frogmarched out of their offices in handcuffs, and you can see this on your telly? Financial oversight is also no poser: One of the world's big five in the audit sector became bankrupt. The church and the intelligence services have been dogged by bad luck: The Pope himself has to deal with the scandalous cases of sexual harassment by Catholic priests while the U.S. main intelligence and counterintelligence agencies have ended up as whipping boys because they could have averted, but failed to do so, the September 11 terror attacks. Against this backdrop, lack of faith in parliamentary institutions is hardly surprising: Recently, a Representative was expelled from Congress (as people in the Soviet Union used to be expelled from the Communist Party) and sent to prison for tax evasion and graft.

The Americans have lost trust in just about everything. Pharmaceutical companies, in their eyes, are greedy swindlers that inflate the price of drugs sky high. Construction companies are shoddy operators that knock up flimsy cardboard houses and sell them at outrageous prices. Lawyers are extortionists who build cases out of thin air and impose them on their clients. Politicians are venal gasbags. Doctors are only concerned with pumping money out of their patients. Universities, too, have traded lofty ideas in for cut-throat business practices. Schools are just no good. State agencies and institutions are staffed with half-wits who (as was the case with the immigration service) keep sending documents to people long since dead - and not just to dead persons, but to dead Arab suicide bombers at that.

And all of this is true, more's the pity. The American nation has already had periods of soul-searching - say, in the 1960s, at the height of the war in Vietnam, or in the late 1970s, when recession had brought about such an upswing in crime and pessimism that President Carter called his fellow-countrymen a sick nation.

There are, however, some basic differences between the situation then and now. At the time the credibility crisis affected the state, but not the church, the stock exchange, or other independent institutions. But most important, it was a crisis without a paralyzing feeling of physical danger emanating from a deadly enemy.

A Sense of Insecurity?

Economic recession in the United States began many months before the September 2001 tragedy. Yet until recently Americans were spending their money without much concern about the future. People believed that before long everything would fall back into place.

It is this faith that keeps the U.S. economy going: Consumer demand accounts for two-thirds of GDP. According to the Conference Board, America is still the main driving force behind global economic recovery. Incidentally, it is not the whole of the world economy that is sick. Russia and other FSU republics are robust and going strong.

Come On, Russian Bear

I have lived in this country long enough to be struck by "Russophile" television advertising that has recently hit the screens. In promoting its trademark, Exxon Mobil talks about some cutting-edge equipment, and ends its commercial with a line to the effect that this latest technology will soon be working near Russian shores. In the short time that has passed since the terror attacks, Russia has entered American homes, advancing from an obscure, irrelevant state, to the foreground position traditionally occupied in the American public consciousness by Britain, France, Japan, Germany, Canada, and a couple or so other countries. Today a street express poll produces amazing results: "Where is Russia?" "In Europe. And in Asia." "What is the Russian capital?" "Moscow." "Is Russia an enemy or an ally of the United States?" "An ally." These modest achievements are certainly impressive.

It seems to be just a beginning. According to some U.S. media outlets citing diplomatic sources, Russia has already named a price for its support for the use of force against Iraq: several billion dollars' worth of contracts after Saddam's ouster, when rehabilitation and development of the Iraqi economy begins; Russia's fast-track admission to the WTO; removal of barriers obstructing access for Russian goods to the U.S. market, and, in passing, as it were, tacit blessing by America of Russia's forceful action against the Chechen separatists.

The White House is expected to accept these conditions. Especially if a touch of oil is added to the painting, The Russian Bear Is Coming: This past summer, the first two super tankers with Yukos oil arrived in Houston; it looks like Russia could become a stable supplier of oil to the United States. The only thing still unsettled is where a deep-water port is to be built - in Murmansk or Nakodka: Neither Baltic nor Mediterranean straits can accommodate super tankers while it is economically unviable to ship oil in small tankers and then reload it to bigger ones (as was the case with first Yukos deliveries).

Having lived through a horrendous shock, America has taken a new look at itself and the world around. This will benefit America as well as others. Indeed, there is no great loss without some small gain.

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