#9
FEATURE - Russia, Pakistan profit, Saudi loses from Sept.11
By Jon Boyle

MOSCOW, Aug 29 (Reuters) - A former KGB spy, two nuclear outcasts and a bevy of Central Asian despots have emerged as the surprising winners in the post-September 11 world, while the star of the once reliable royal house of Saud has waned.

Analysts say Russian President Vladimir Putin seized the chance to offer unprecedented intelligence aid for the ensuing U.S. "war on terrorism" that allowed him to reposition Russia as a reliable, though not uncritical, ally.

Pakistan's military leadership has -- for now -- swapped pariah status for membership of the coalition hunting for Osama bin Laden, the key suspect in last year's devastating attacks, its lack of democratic credentials suddenly less important.

Regional rival India has also gained from the increased U.S. role in the region, notably over the Kashmir conflict, while Central Asia's once unpalatable leaders have been born again as U.S. allies and bulwarks against Muslim extremism.

U.S. bombs and Russian Kalashnikovs relieved Afghanistan of the little-lamented Taliban rulers that had sheltered bin Laden, though rebuilding the faction-ridden country will be as daunting as the 12 labours of Hercules for President Hamid Karzai.

But Saudia Arabia, once the archetypal pro-Western Arab state, has seen its stock fall sharply. Fifteen of the kingdom's subjects took part in the hijacked airliner attacks, now known in the United States simply by the U.S. date "9/11."

RUSSIAN RENAISSANCE

"From an American point of view, there is no question but that Russia has rocketed up the list of possible partners," said Philip Gordon, senior fellow at Washington's Brookings Institution. Russia's recent acceptance of weapons-grade uranium from Yugoslavia in a U.S.-funded operation was clear evidence of Washington's new-found confidence in Moscow, he said.

"The skill of Putin was not only that he perceived the opportunity of moving closer to the United States, and at a stroke deflected or deflated the criticism about Chechnya in all Western governments," said Jonathan Eyal, director of studies at London's Royal United Services Institute for Defence Studies.

"He even managed to persuade the elite in Moscow that this time the conversion is for real, not only on the Russian side, but actually on the Western side," he said.

Putin has sought tangible economic rewards to buttress political gains such as full membership of the elite G8 group and a new deal with NATO, still Europe's premier security body.

A more cooperative U.S. approach to Russia over the oil riches of the Caspian Sea is already apparent and Moscow now presents itself as an alternative strategic oil supplier.

"The advantages Russia is getting and will eventually get...are opportunities, rather than hard cash," said Boris Makarenko, deputy director of Moscow's Centre for Political Technologies. "But they are absolutely vital for the modernisation through which Russia is going right now."

POODLES AND THE DOG HOUSE

Britain's Tony Blair won plaudits in the United States for his unquestioning support for U.S. President George W. Bush, at the cost of the "poodle" jibe at home that singer George Michael put to caustic effect in his hit single "Shoot the Dog."

But, says Francois Heisbourg, director of the Paris-based Foundation for Strategic Research: "On the big issues important to the British, like the Kyoto convention (on climate change), the International Criminal Court (for war criminals), and more generally the creation of a multilateral international system, the Americans clearly take no account of British interests."

Also down, but not out is NATO. Once an integral part of U.S. security thinking it was sidestepped as too cumbersome, Washington instead cherry picking a "coalition of the willing" for the war in Afghanistan.

"The way the U.S. behaved when consulting in the weeks after September 11 was a revelation for certain countries well integrated into NATO, which hadn't realised just how marginal NATO had become in U.S. strategic thinking," Heisbourg said.

But it retains an important role in European security: witness U.S. support for the planned further enlargement into former Communist eastern Europe this November.

Russia and Britain aside, Washington's ruling conservatives are deeply disappointed with their Cold War-era allies in Europe. "There's a perception that Europe isn't prepared to stand full with us in the war on terrorism," said Gordon of the Brookings Institution.

"Moscow on the other hand is solid, and its rather ironic that...since September 11 it's the Russians who are the prime partner, and possibly energy partner and counter-terrorism partner, much more than the West Europeans."

WIN-WIN FOR TRADITIONAL ENEMIES

India and Pakistan, in the international dog house for testing nuclear bombs, suddenly found themselves in favour.

Pakistan's leader General Pervez Musharraf, until then an outcast under pressure to restore democratic rule, became a key player in U.S.-led military action in neighbour Afghanistan while juggling fierce domestic opposition to his polices.

"He's a much freer hand to keep his (nuclear) bomb and keep his military power than he had before. So in that sense he clearly wins," Gordon said.

Rival India, meanwhile, saw the row over its nuclear tests forgotten as Washington's focus changed.

"Although the United States is closer to Pakistan at the moment for the obvious reasons, I don't think there's much doubt in American military planners that the long-term strategic partner in the region is India," said Eyal.

"India is the democracy, the huge state with a huge economy to match. Pakistan will be much more a fair-weather friend while relations with India are going to be for the long duration."

Heisbourg said China was a big loser having lost its ally Pakistan to the United States' muscular embrace.

The Chinese feeling of "strategic suffocation" was aggravated by the good relations between Russia and the United States, he said. Beijing had traditionally used Moscow as a counterweight to U.S. influence.

Others said its fraught domestic politics meant Pakistan was not much of a loss to China, which is using regional groupings to carve itself a new role in Central Asia. The U.S. obsession with counter-terrorism would also slow missile defence that China fears will undermine its nuclear arsenal.

ROYAL LOSER

September 11 has, however, fuelled a radical U.S. rethink of its relations with Saudi Arabia, the Gulf state and oil exporter long Washington's key Arab economic and military ally in the region.

Home to most of the extremists who flew the passenger jets into U.S. landmarks on September 11, the oil-rich kingdom is now seen as part of the problem not the solution.

"The Saudis have been playing a very duplicitous game," said Eyal. "They are officially pro-Western while privately they were financing the export of this boorish, simple, stupid form of Islam that they support, which is actually not shared by almost any other country in the world.

"The one issue which was unthinkable until now, planning for after the house of Saud has disappeared from Saudi Arabia, is now very much what American planners are thinking of. So perhaps bin Laden has succeeded in that narrow respect. It has changed our view of the way we look at Saudi Arabia."

Steven Simon, assistant director of London's International Institute for Strategic Studies, said despite U.S. frustrations, Saudia Arabia remained an important player in the Middle East.

"The U.S. and Saudi Arabia are still doomed to sleep with each other every night. There are limits to how aggravated each side can allow itself to get," he said.

Simon, however, believes talk of winners and losers overlooks the real significance of the 3,000 deaths in the Pentagon and the World Trade Centre's twin towers.

"(The big change is) the emergence of apocalyptic terrorism and the dangers that weapons of mass destruction attacks pose to Western democracies," he said. "Nothing much is being done about that, because it's just very hard to do anything about."

BACK TO THE TOP    #220 CONTENTS    NEXT ARTICLE