#5
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
August 15, 2002
DEFENSE MINISTER DEVELOPING THE OFFENSIVE
Sergei Ivanov could be in line for the post of prime minister
Author: Vadim Solovyov
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]

DEFENSE MINISTER SERGEI IVANOV HAS BECOME AMONG MOST OUTSTANDING FIGURES OF THE RUSSIAN POLITICAL ESTABLISHMENT. NOWADAYS, EVEN HIS HARSHEST CRITICS CANNOT FAIL TO ACKNOWLEDGE THAT HE HAS MANAGED TO ACHIEVE A GREAT DEAL. THERE ARE RUMORS THAT HE COULD REPLACE MIKHAIL KASIANOV AS PRIME MINISTER.

Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov has become among most outstanding figures of the Russian political establishment. The rapt attention paid by the media to this individual is not only due to the defense minister's tough statements on countering the Chechen guerrillas, nor his views on resolving the Pankisi Gorge problem and the significance of the war games currently underway in the Caspian Sea. It is quite clear that Ivanov is not only declaring the state's good intentions to change the situation drastically, but a quite perceptible intention to do it through the state's capacity to use force. Ivanov, who had until recently been perceived as a diffident novice, perhaps being promoted to the position of defense minister by a happy chance, is acting with confidence. However, Ivanov has a background as a lieutenant-general in the security services, and he has worked with foreign intelligence.

Contemporary management practice shows that no less than a year is required for someone to become fully confident in a senior executive role and familiar with how the tangled system of state administration operates. Sergei Ivanov was appointed defense minister 18 months ago, on March 28, 2001.

The Russian military's officers and generals were fairly skeptical about having a defense minister who hadn't worked his way up the basic command ranks in the military. At first, Sergei Ivanov didn't show any zeal to command or "enforce strict discipline" with an iron hand, as all of his predecessors had done. He resorted to cunning reconnaissance methods, restricting himself to comments related to foreign policy, which was more familiar and closer to him. His errors in military terminology drew ironic smiles from professionals. Now the irony has faded considerably. After completing a tour of all military districts and fleets, Ivanov has started commenting on military development, improving living standards for military personnel, and the use of forces in combat. The culmination of Ivanov's increased activity has been almost two weeks of war games in the Caspian Sea. Ivanov didn't seem like an outsider there; he has become a real, fully-fledged defense minister, resolutely defending the interests of the Armed Forces, as well as the national interest, for he has long since been counted among Russia's most influential politicians.

From the viewpoint of the Armed Forces' political administration, and in Western terminology, Sergei Ivanov can be described as a hawk. The underlying theme of his statements is clear - no peace talks with the Chechen extremists; war until victory. At the end of the Caspian Sea exercises, he didn't miss a single opportunity to show who actually owns this sea (or lake). At the same time, nobody could describe Ivanov as a despot. He is not inclined to issue harsh reprimands; he prefers an intelligent style of communicating with officers. In a word, he is not a general, but a politician for generals.

Nowadays, even his harshest critics cannot fail to acknowledge that Sergei Ivanov has managed to achieve a great deal. He neither intervenes in the operational activities of the troops nor strives to command them, leaving these functions to the General Staff. It is important for the defense minister that the military should aim at carrying out political tasks. The social problems of the Armed Forces are not being left unresolved. The results achieved by the Defense Ministry in the draft military budget for 2003 are indicative. Defense spending will be increased by 45.9%, or 77 billion rubles, according to a Finance Ministry source. It is not easy to get such a decision approved, given that 2003 will be the peak year for Russia's foreign debt payments. Moreover, 47 billion rubles has been allocated for the social needs of military personnel; 27 billion rubles of this will be used to raise military pensions, and 20 billion rubles to raise salaries for regular officers.

However, many observers can't overcome the sense that Sergei Ivanov's rapid rise is due not only to his real achievements as defense minister, but also to a skillfully orchestrated PR campaign. As a rule, such PR capacities are employed in contemporary Russian politics in two cases: if a person has many influential opponents who need to be neutralized, or preparations are underway to transfer that person to another position. Although Ivanov may well have enough rivals these days, he doesn't seem to have any obvious enemies. But there have been hints for some time that he could be in line for a transfer to another top job.

For almost a year, Sergei Ivanov has been named as likely to replace Alexander Voloshin as head of the Presidential Administration. This possibility shouldn't be ruled out, but it is very unlikely. What seems a more realistic prospect now is Ivanov's possible appointment as prime minister, taking into account his political experience and achievements as defense minister. Firstly, the president could thus solve the "Kasianov problem," which has been vigorously discussed by both left-wing and right-wing forces. Secondly, this appointment could be significant for Putin, since it would not only strengthen his own position, but also confirm the real contours of his St. Petersburg team. Finally, as prime minister Sergei Ivanov might become the final point of support in the determination of the regime's political ambitions. Provided that Vladimir Putin thinks likewise.

(Translated by Andrei Ryabochkin)

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