#11
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
August 6, 2002
RUSSIANS ARE ASIANS
By 2010 Chinese will become the second-largest ethnic group in Russia
Author: Andrei Vaganov
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]

ACCORDING TO ANALYSTS, THE CHINESE THREAT IS A VERY REAL DANGER, ALTHOUGH RUSSIA REFUSES TO DWELL ON IT BECAUSE OF THE "STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP" WITH CHINA. RUSSIA SHOULD URGENTLY DEVELOP EASTERN SIBERIA AND THE FAR EAST IF IT DOES NOT WISH TO LOSE THESE TERRITORIES FOREVER.

Apparently many social-political and geopolitical processes in the world are closely connected with population ratings. Currently Russia is the most populous state in Europe. However, this is not enough for effective development and management of such a vast territory. Now we need to consider the maintenance of Russian sovereignty and preservation of some ethnic groups in Russia, primarily all ethnic Russians.

According to the recently published "Report on development of the Russian potential in the Russian Federation in 2001" prepared by the UN Program for Development, "The main problem with demographic development in Russia is a nationwide depopulation trend." In other words, Russians are gradually becoming extinct.

According to the State Statistics Committee, as of January 1, 2001 the number of residents of the Russian Federation was 144.8 million. Since 1992 the population of Russia has been declining. Overall, from 1992 to 2000 the Russian population shrank by 3.5 million people or 2.4%. From 1999 depopulation accelerated: in 2000 it was 751,100, against 784,500 in 1999.

The population of Russia is falling because the death rate exceeds the birth rate. This means that the generation of children does not replace the generation of parents, says Natalia Rimashevskaya, director of the Institute for social and economic issues at the Russian Academy of Sciences. "Life expectancy is also a very important indicator, and today Russia has the lowest life expectancy in Europe, holding 143rd place worldwide. This is a death sentence for Russian reforms," says Rimashevskaya.

The number of migrants to Russia only partially compensates for depopulation: in 2000 it compensated it only by 21.6% against 16.7% in 1999.

Experts of the Center for demography and human environment of the institute for economic forecasts at the Russian Academy of Science, say the depopulation trends will spread through the majority of the Russian regions. According to expert appraisals, by 2016 the population of 77 out of 89 Russian regions will decline.

Researchers of the center for demography and human environment also note that the trends of the past decade, depopulation of Russians and increase of the population of the North Caucasus, first appeared in the 1960s, while depopulation of Finnish and European people started in the 1930s. Compared to pre-war censuses, the Poles, Komi, Karelians, and Jews have left the top twenty, while the Ossetins, Kabardins, Chechens, and Avarians have entered the top twenty.

Migration is also a very important component of the demographic crisis in Russia. Recently, Interior Minister Boris Gryzlov admitted at a meeting in the Interior Ministry, "The demographic situation in Russia is very bad. According to demographers' forecasts, by 2010 the population will fall to 130 million, while by 2050 there will be only 70 million."

Gryzlov is concerned about the outflux of residents from remote Russian regions. According to him, only 20 million people live east of the Urals, and people are constantly leaving the Far North, the Russian Far East, and Siberia. "It is necessary to create economic conditions which could attract people to these regions," stressed Gryzlov.

Since the second half of the 1990s the population of the Far East and Siberia has decreased by about a third, while "Chinese think 50 to 70 million of their compatriots could inhabit Siberia and the Far East," says Rimashevskaya.

Vilya Gelbras, professor of the Institute of Asian and African countries at the Moscow State University said in his interview with our correspondent, "We should actually develop Eastern Siberia and the Far East if we do not want to lose these territories forever. It is a quite real danger, although we refuse to think of it because of our "strategic partnership" with China. We must think of it!"

According to Professor Gelbras, soon Russia will face lack of labor force and will have to import workers from neighbor countries. The Chinese are likely to make the lion's share of foreign migrants to Russia, as they are the most competitive comparing to migrants from other countries. Moreover, if in the near future the economic situation in Russia does not improve considerably, the number of migrants from China will sharply increase. According to authoritative experts, by 2010 the number of the Chinese in Russia could reach 8-10 million. If this forecast holds true, the Chinese will become the second largest ethnic group in Russia.

Russia has to take a number of geopolitical factors into account. In particular, large numbers of Chinese migrants to the Russian Far East would not be compensated at the expense of their cultural assimilation with the native population due to closeness of their own culture. Moreover, sooner or later it is likely to liven up China's territorial claims. The Chinese political leadership knows how to defend the interests of its country, and recent Russia-China negotiations on Russia's joining the World Trade Organization prove it.

The "yellow wave" has not only flooded the Russian Far East but has also reached the western border of the Russian Federation.

(Translated by Arina Yevtikhova )

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