#7
Argumenty i Fakty
July 31, 2002
WHO IS CLOSE ON VLADIMIR PUTIN'S HEELS?
An interview with leading political analyst Gleb Pavlovsky
Author: Vitaly Tseplyaev
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]

GLEB PAVLOVSKY, HEAD OF THE EFFECTIVE POLICY FOUNDATION, PREDICTS THAT THE LAST MONTH OF SUMMER WILL NOT BE CALM: RUSSIA IS ALREADY BEING DRAWN INTO THE WHIRLPOOL OF ELECTION CAMPAIGNS. THERE IS SOME OBVIOUS SOCIAL FERMENT IN RUSSIA: A NEW, STRONGER, BETTER-EDUCATED STRONG POLITICAL GENERATION IS RISING.

Question: Why do you think August tends to be such a troublesome month in Russia: the August coup of 1991, the financial crisis of 1998, Putin's appointment as prime minister in 1999?

Gleb Pavlovsky: I think the simplest explanation is a breakthrough of postponed issues into politics.

Question: Is this August likely to be stormy?

Pavlovsky: Yes, it is. There is uneven but obvious animation in the economy. Some are successfully extricating themselves from recession, and thus acquiring different interests. There is some obvious social ferment in Russia: a new, stronger, better-educated strong political generation is rising. They are not ready to "postpone themselves"; and sovereignty for them is the right to resolve their issues independently, to be masters in their own homes, streets, cities, and country. At the same time, political parties are decaying, not proposing anything new. That is why there are more and more conflicts in Russia.

A recent example is the flooding in southern Russia. The people saw no politician visit there until Putin arrived - no wonder, since there were no elections, it was only a flood! The same applies to the anti-Armenian violence in Krasnoarmeysk, where some local residents were furious because their jobs were taken by newcomers, and the usual urban element is becoming criminalized. Illegal immigration is a common European problem, but when it is resolved with the help of knives, it is a civil disaster.

Politicians who are preparing reforms to the electricity sector and to housing and utilities without the participation of voters are preparing repetitions of events in Voronezh, Ualyanovsk, and Krasnoarmeysk. Duma deputies should not be surprised if, after returning from their summer vacations, they do not recognize the nation.

The point is that the ruling generation is set to change. Old political players are like a blood clot in the political arteries; but the nation's veins demand good circulation. In a democracy, this means elections. It is no coincidence that there are so many election intrigues at present, although it is a whole year before the elections.

Question: What do you think the results of the circulation will be? What surprises are we to expect from the parliamentary elections?

Pavlovsky: There is to be an electoral redistribution. Currently Duma leaders are dividing electoral districts among themselves. But the people have changed, and the parties have missed it. New parties have appeared both on the left and the right wing, as well as in the center. There are numerous signs that this time voters will not support the old political generation.

Question: What do you think of the unexpected crowding on the centrist field, caused by the appearance of the Party of Life?

Pavlovsky: It is a sign of bureaucratic discontent with the United Russia party, and an attempt to take the position of the major critic of its weak points. It is a profitable position and an interesting project, but its performance is poor. The Party of Life is nothing but a newspaper headline so far, while United Russia has a 30% popularity rating.

Question: What will be the main intrigue in the presidential election?

Pavlovsky: Obviously, Putin will win the election; that is why the value of the runner-up position has increased immensely. Besides, the chance that Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov will not come in second - for the first time - has also increased. The person who is runner-up in 2004 has a real chance of winning the election in 2008.

This causes increased interest in the right wing and the center, not the pro-communist flanks. However, politicians are so far unable to see this interest, and voters are likely to stir them up soon. There will be a major power-struggle for leadership among the right wing. New players are to appear, not necessarily liberal ones. By the way, if there are any new strong presidential contenders from the right or the left, then Putin's victory is not that inevitable - there are not enough percentage points to go round.

Question: Might Yeltsin's "Family" promote its own candidate?

Pavlovsky: A ghost cannot promote a candidate; and the Family, even if it did exist before Putin, is just a ghost now.

(Translated by Arina Yevtikhova)

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