#1
New CDI Book Examines Global Threats to Security
CENTER FOR DEFENSE INFORMATION
Press Release
1779 Massachusetts Ave, NW, Washington, DC 20036
Ph: (202) 332-0600
Fax: (202) 462-4559
For Immediate Release
Date: July 30, 2002
Contact: John Newhouse (202) 797-5261

A new book from the Center for Defense Information (CDI), Assessing the Threats, [http://www.cdi.org/products/threat-assessment.pdf] reviews and compares emerging threat perceptions around the world in the wake of Sept. 11, looking at strategic thinking in the United States, West Europe, Russia and Northeast Asia. Although the book does not set out to make specific conclusions, one common theme is the authors’ by and large critical aim at the continued emphasis by the administration of U.S. President George W. Bush on missile defense as a critical element in combating weapons of mass destruction.

What is evident from the five essays included in the book is a global concern about the proliferation of new methods of delivering nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, such as cruise missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles. At the same time, the authors show clearly that there needs to be more effort to coordinate strategic thinking among the world’s Great Powers - particularly by the United States, whose own threat perceptions continue to diverge from those of its allies, partners and friends.

The authors include well-known international scholars:

Thérèse Deplech, currently director of strategic affairs at the Atomic Energy Commission and senior research fellow at the Center for International Studies (CERI - Foundation Nationale des Sciences Politiques), in Paris, explains in the first chapter why Europe sees itself as less threatened than the other three regions covered by the book, but argues that European governments are under-estimating the threats and investing far too little in defending against them.

John Newhouse, former senior policy advisor on European Affairs to U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott and currently CDI senior fellow, surveys the interconnected threats to the United States from terrorism and weapons of mass destruction, concluding that questionable security of Russian nuclear weapons is the most disturbing, and arguing that coping with these new challenges will require “sustained multilateralism” rather than a unilateral U.S. approach.

Alexei G. Arbatov, deputy of the State Duma of the Russian Federation, deputy chairman of the Defense Committee of the State Duma, a scholar at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) and long-time adviser to the Russian Defense and Foreign ministries, describes the limited resources available to Russia for national defense and maintenance of a stable strategic balance with the United States. The resource squeeze, he says, “could lead to still greater reliance on tactical nuclear forces” and also abandonment of military reform - a situation made worse by the U.S. pursuit of ballistic missile defenses.

Dr. Ivan Safranchuk, head of CDI’s Moscow Office and well-known Russian nuclear analyst, discusses the Russian view of threats to security first in the light of public opinion polls that show at least half the Russian public feels increasingly threatened. He then describes what he sees as actual threats to Russia, most importantly terrorism, but also the West’s new generations of weapons and new ways of conducting military operations.

Yoichi Funabashi, a columnist and chief diplomatic correspondent of the Asahi Shimbun, Japan’s national daily newspaper, argues in the final chapter that policymakers in Japan, China, Taiwan, and the Korean Peninsula confront a number of strategic uncertainties, including: the possibility of long-term Russian-American cooperation: the possibility that the campaign against terrorism will push the U.S. toward isolationism or interventionism; and how U.S. missile defense policy evolves. A major concern for Northeast Asia, he notes, is the future of U.S.-China relations, which he sees as remaining mired in mistrust.

For more information, to receive copies of the book, or to contact the authors, contact John Newhouse at jnewhouse@cdi.org.

Entire book available online at: http://www.cdi.org/products/threat-assessment.pdf
(PDF format; requires Acrobat reader)

BACK TO THE TOP    #217 CONTENTS    NEXT ARTICLE