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Voice of America
24 July 2002
NATO Eyes Caucasus, But Will Russia Approve?
Ed Warner
Washington
What once seemed wildly improbable is now taken for granted. NATO continues
to move east into parts of the former Soviet Union. The three Baltic states,
Slovakia and Slovenia in central Europe, and Romania and Bulgaria on the Black
Sea, appear likely to join the alliance at its November summit in Prague.
Farther east still, Georgia and Azerbaijan in the Caucasus are seeking
admission. But that may finally meet stiff resistance from Moscow as a serious
challenge to Russia's national interest.
In the words of a veteran analyst: "The nations of the Caucasus have a
daunting mixture of Asiatic despotism and Soviet despotism."
That is the opinion of Vladimir Socor, who also said two of those countries,
Georgia and Azerbaijan, should become members of NATO by 2005. He concedes
nevertheless there is much work to be done in terms of improving their
governments and bringing their military forces up to NATO standards.
Some European NATO members have serious doubts this can be accomplished, but
Mr. Socor thinks it must be, considering the region's vast oil and gas reserves.
"NATO is essential for providing an overall security framework, both in
military and in political terms, in order to anchor these countries safely into
the western security system. Absent such an anchor, those countries would be
permanently exposed to the historic east-west contest in which Russia today
believes it has geopolitical interests which are at variance with those of the
west," he said.
Mr. Socor said Russia is too weak militarily to stand up to the west and will
offer more talk than action. He noted Russian President Putin has offered little
objection to the U.S. military mission sent to train Georgian forces.
Don't count on a passive Russia, responds Sergei Konoplyov, director of the
Black Sea Security program at Harvard University. It is one thing for Russia to
go along with the Caucasus participation in NATO's Partnership for Peace
program, since Russia now has a similar association with NATO.
Nevertheless, said Mr. Konoplyov, "What might bother Russia is that
Azerbaijan could play a more active role, trying to use the relationship with
NATO against Russia and Iran. And Georgia might do it, too. So Russia will lose
more influence in that region. Don't forget that Azerbaijan is a very rich part
of the world," he said.
Russia may not have much of a choice, said Vladimir Socor. Westernization has
gone too far to be turned back. "The western orientation does command a
consensus in both Georgia and Azerbaijan, both at the level of the political
elites and at the level of the general populace. These societies have made their
choice. These societies have cast their lot with the west. They know what the
source of prosperity is for them in the future. They see where the source of
power in the world is," Mr. Socor said.
But Russia still has military bases in Georgia and strong influence in
adjacent Armenia, which is not going to join NATO and has fought Azerbaijan over
the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. Just as the west strengthens Georgia
and Azerbaijan, said Mr. Konoplyov, Russia supplies Armenia.
Mr. Konoplyov adds the internal situation in Georgia and Azerbaijan is too
uncertain to predict western victory. Georgian President Shevardnadze and
Azerbaijani President Aliyev are both in their late 70's with waning popular
support. A younger, competent succession is possible but not assured.
In the ensuing turmoil, said Mr. Konoplyov, anything can happen. "I do
not exclude a possibility that after both presidents go, those countries might
be pushed toward the Russian orbit again. The successors might be Russian
oriented, and I think Russia is working in that direction. There is a lot of
opposition to Shevardnadze in Georgia, and there is a lot of opposition to
Aliyev in Azerbaijan," he said.
Analysts say the Caucasus seems destined to be a keenly contested region
between Russia and the West with NATO quite likely the focal point.
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