#10
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
No. 109
July 2002
[translation for personal use only]
WON'T THE G8 WEAKEN THE UN ROLE?
Sergei ROGOV, director, Institute of US and Canadian Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences

Yet another G8 summit has wound up not so long ago, confirming those latest important changes in relations between Russia and the West. One can safely say that Russia has opted for political democracy and market economy. Still it would be quite logical to believe that Russia should be admitted into the community of states preaching such values. However, Russia still doesn't take part in the work of some important Western institutions, such as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The relevant talks as regards Russia's projected WTO (World Trade Organization) membership are proceeding with difficulty. Such institutional isolation seriously hinders Russia's integration into the community of leading democratic countries.

The G8 summit enabled its participants to make some headway on a number of issues and to attain progress in the military- political sphere, first and foremost. At the same time, our Western partners, Europe, in the first place, keep insisting that Russia accept some highly unprofitable pre-conditions, while discussing its admission into the WTO and some other issues.

Russia's external debts still remain to be clarified. Moscow is helping to scale down the Third World's debt burden in line with specific programmes that were examined at the summit. (The Kananaskis summit discussed aid to Africa -- Ed.) Russia accounts for 40 percent of all debts that should be written off ($25-26 billion, all told). At the same time, Russia also shoulders a tremendous debt burden, which can be compared to that of many developing countries. Moscow would be expected to pay $17-18 billion to its Western creditors over the 2002 period. Some $20 billion will have to be paid next year, as well. To cut a long story short, Russia has to cope with a double burden, as it repays its own debts, while writing off other countries' debts. However, the West apparently doesn't heed the latter factor.

The summit did approve a document on aiding Russian efforts to scrap its mass destruction weapons. According to its provisions, $20 billion shall be set aside during the next decade; moreover, this document implies that specific Russian debts can be written off to the account of such aid. Such aid would prove even more effective because it would otherwise turn out that Russia, which pays 10-15-fold more to its creditors, gets unimpressive monies in return. The West is also ready to recognize Russia's market-economy status; this instils hope to the effect that it will become possible to settle all differences.

Russia has completely asserted itself within the framework of this elite club, which has thus evolved from the G7 into the G8. The G8, which used to be an essentially walled-in Western club prior to Russia's admission, has now acquired a new quality.

The current G8 line-up reflects those complex global realities to a greater extent. Russia matches Western countries in terms of some parameters; nonetheless, serious political and economic differences still persist.

This international forum might, therefore, evolve still further. An enlarged G8 is now being contemplated in one way or another. They say that China should, first of all, take part in its work. India and Brazil are also seen as prospective candidates. A recent discussion dealing with the uni-polar and the multi-polar world reminds one that an insufficiently rigid institution comprising the world's great powers is now emerging. However, this institution is still devoid of any clear-cut structure.

The G8 is a factor, which highlights the modern world's multi-polar nature. The United States, which is trying to play the lead within the G8's framework, is unable to impose its solutions (as regards all issues) on other participants. Incidentally, this also happened during the latest Kananaskis summit. Among other things, leading European powers reacted somewhat coldly to the US plan for defusing the Israeli- Palestinian conflict.

To my mind, it would be absolutely incorrect to talk about the G8's demise nowadays; however, the media has repeatedly mentioned this on the eve of the Kananaskis summit. The G8 continues to evolve and develop still further; and its global role will be enhanced considerably in the foreseeable future. True, one can say that a more substantial G8 role can facilitate the solution of various problems, also creating additional problems. Won't the role of the UN and its Security Council be weakened still further as a result? Won't this informal club undermine democratic trends in international relations to an even greater extent? Moreover, won't big-league players disregard the interests of small and medium-class players? We can't answer such questions today because this process is still quite fluid.

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