#6
Rossiiskaya Gazeta
No. 114
June 2002
[translation from RIA Novosti for personal use only]
RUSSIA MAY BECOME A LEADING ASIAN COUNTRY
Following below is an interview with Nikolai ZLOBIN, who supervises
Russian and Asian programs at the US Center for Defense Information.
Question: The conference for interaction
and confidence- building measures in Asia (CICA) has ended in Alma-Ata not so
long ago. The Shanghai cooperation organization's summit has also proved
successful. Russia's relations with Israel have become more active. Add to this
Moscow's efforts to mediate the Indo- Pakistani conflict. Does this mean that
Russia would like to represent Asian interests during the present-day G8 summit
in Canada?
Answer: The G8, which is an elite club of
rich countries, is now suffering from well-nigh the same problems, as other
international entities do.
As I see it, the G8 concept itself partly loses sense because regional
problems now top the agenda. I'm talking about Asia, whose problems can't be
solved by the former G7. That's why it's pretty hard to overestimate Russia's
role in this respect.
Russia's presence at the Canadian summit can bring this forum in conformity
with present-day global realities. On the one hand, the G8 would like to utilize
Russia's regional potential. On the other hand, Asia is greatly interested in
expanding its influence within the G8 framework. Mind you, Asia simply lacks any
other leverage, except Russia, for influencing the situation today.
Question: Can you confirm the fact that
the United States is ready to represent Russia's interests in other regions of
the world in exchange for a similar Russian service in Asia?
Answer: Naturally enough, the
regional-parity concept for Asia, which implies that Russia will be instrumental
in ensuring Western interests there, enables Moscow to demand that its allies
defend Russian interests in those specific regions where Russia has minimal or
even zero direct influence. Washington is ready to provide sufficiently
wide-ranging verbal guarantees, while discussing this issue nowadays. Still
Moscow itself should formulate its clear-cut demands.
It would be naive to think that Washington is going to draft a concept of its
relations with Russia at this stage. Moscow should set forth a clear-cut concept
of its strategic interests in those particular regions, which are not
traditionally influenced by it, or which have been lost to Russia over the
years. This concept should then be offered to the White House for discussion.
Question: Japan and China are also vying
for the leading role in Asia. What are Russia's chances to claim the role of US
President's permanent representative in the Asia "federal district"?
Answer: Russia can now become the main
Asian country with US assistance; such chances are higher than those of any
other regional country. Japan, which is now suffering from a long-term economic
and demographic crisis, lacks the required resources and military potential. Nor
does Tokyo have sufficient political influence and authority over vast
continental Asian territories. Japan can't become part and parcel of military
structures; nor can it join the European Union. Incidentally, the same can be
said about China.
Should Russia lose to China in the struggle for Asian leadership, then
Washington would perceive this as the most unfavorable scenario. However, China
still faces the Taiwan problem; consequently, its foreign-political orientation
will remain sufficiently purposeful and somewhat predictable. The Chinese
economy now lags considerably behind Russia's economy. In addition, Washington
considers the Chinese economy as potentially less attractive because China lacks
fuel-and-energy resources.
Summing up, Russia can become a leading regional country some 25 years from
now.
(Transcript by Nikolai KHORUNZHY.)
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