#6
strana.ru
June 6, 2002
Axis of Evil - Make Way for Arch of Stability
Defense Ministers Rumsfeld and Ivanov will dwell specifically on prospects for greater interaction in the war on terrorism at their Brussels meeting on Friday
By Vladimir Yegorov

After the Russian president managed, while attending the recent Conference for Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia, to obtain some relaxation of tensions between India and Pakistan and force the conflicting parties to make encouraging statements, the main vector of world politics has begun shifting south, the nexus of many urgent problems presenting real security threat for both East and West.

The situation in Southern Asia will be up for discussion at a bilateral meeting between Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld scheduled for Friday in Brussels. A Pentagon spokesman reported that Messrs. Rumsfeld and Ivanov would dwell specifically on prospects for greater interaction in the war on terrorism and for cooperation in the area of antimissile defense.

As is expected, Mr. Rumsfeld is to go from Brussels to India and Pakistan after having consultations with his Russian counterpart and the United State's Richard Armitage, who had already visited Islamabad and Delhi.

To quote a statement Mr. Rumsfeld made before setting out on his lengthy tour of Europe, Southern Asia and the Middle East, the threat of war between India and Pakistan was distracting attention from the antiterrorist fight, which had specifically reflected on the joint U.S. and Pakistani efforts to rout Osama bin Laden's forces on Afghan territory.

In keeping with information from different sources, elements of the Taliban and Al Qaeda were being more active in the territory of Pakistan, taking direct part in attacks on India in Jammu and Kashmir. Some Delhi sources also say that, according to radio exchanges intercepted by the Indian army, the local gunmen have received an order to halt their operations for the time being, which, the sources believe, only confirms that the terrorists are supported by official Islamabad.

Interestingly, the Pentagon leaked information - shortly before the Rumsfeld tour - concerning the activities of terrorist organizations in Pakistan. The leak was obviously aimed at bringing pressure to bear on Islamabad and making President Pervez Musharraf fulfill promises on fighting terrorism he had given President George Bush during his visit to Washington earlier this year. It is not inconceivable that Mr. Rumsfeld may suggest launching joint strikes at terrorist camps in Pakistan.

Simultaneously, he intends to tell the forthcoming Brussels meeting of the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council at the defense ministry level that the United States and a number of other NATO countries plan to shift the burden of Partnership for Peace to Transcaucasia and Central Asia. A high-ranking NATO diplomat commented on that intention by saying that security in Europe depended not only on what NATO and EU were doing but also on relations with their Eastern neighbors.

Indicatively, these actions and statements follow in tandem to the latest statements Vladimir Putin made in his interview with China's Renmin Ribao. These concern both Russia's lack of "any particular allergy" to the temporary presence of U.S. troops in the Central Asian region, and Moscow's evaluation of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as one of the main mechanisms for security and cooperation in Central Asia rather than a military bloc.

The presidential statement to the effect that bilateral cooperation between Russia and China is not directed against any other country fits squarely with this premise as well. Finally, a logical sequel to this kind of approach is Vladimir Putin's view that Russia, China, Western European countries, and the U.S. may form "an arch of stability."

The prospect for creating "the arch" is not only probable but is also quite obvious, as stated by the president. He meant specifically "special relations" with NATO that Russia had established several years ago, and the Rome Declaration, which, to quote Vladimir Putin, "deepens Russia's relations with the North Atlantic Alliance."

Evidence of the deepening of those relations was given at the Almaty summit, where Russia also acted on behalf of NATO, whose position on the conflict between Pakistan and India the Russian president communicated to the leaders of the two countries in the course of his personal meetings with them.

This also means new strategic relations with the United States - resumption after a long break of disarmament negotiations - and more cooperation in other areas. This finally means a stepped up dialogue with the EU in spite of serious differences regarding the future of the Kaliningrad region and guarantees of the legitimate rights of its inhabitants following EU expansion.

China seems a logical continuation of this arch, being the country, with which Russia signed an unprecedented friendship treaty last year.

Certainly, the U.S. is unlikely to be ready to share the president of Russia's opinion concerning "the arch of stability," particularly in view of its economic, political, and ideological differences with China, among others. It will be recalled in this connection that Washington retains a negative view of China's human rights record, that Washington cooperates with Taipei while Beijing cooperates with Pyongyang, that there are recurrent "spy scandals," and other things.

Against this background, one can see that the, "arch of stability" drawn by the Russian president and the, "axis of evil" declared by the U.S. president are parallel propositions.

On the one hand, this demonstrates the completely different approaches that Moscow and Washington have - not only to a future world order but also to methods of world organization in the 21st century. Moscow is clearly demonstrating its wish for compromise, equitable partnership, protracted and difficult talks, and only peaceful solutions to the most difficult problems.

All of that has been graphically revealed in the Russian approach to both the Indian-Pakistani conflict and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

Washington, on the contrary, puts its main stake on force - military force included.

On the other, both Russia and the U.S. view the main sources of threats to modern world identically, including international terrorism and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. As a result the "axis" and the "arch" overlap each other. This fact fully explains why Russia, the U.S., and NATO have concentrated on such regions as the Caucasus, the Middle East, and Southern Asia.

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