#7
Kompania
May 27, 2002
NO CARNIVAL
Will Russia and the United States become equal partners?
Author: Gulietto Queso
From WPS Monitoring Agency, [www.wps.ru/e_index.html]

RUSSIA AND THE UNITED STATES ARE BOTH CUTTING THEIR ARSENALS, BUT IN DIFFERENT WAYS, WHICH MAKES THEM UNEQUAL PARTNERS. RUSSIA IS FORMING CLOSER CONTACTS WITH NATO, BUT IT'S UNLIKELY TO BE INCLUDED IN DECISION-MAKING ON IMPORTANT ISSUES. THAT'S WHY RUSSIA IS LOOKING AT CHINA AS A POTENTIAL ALLY.

Do not judge by appearances. Russia and the United States have agreed to reduce their arsenals, and quite considerably, at that. Yet this has not become a step toward disarmament. Moreover, the agreement alarms us slightly. Russia under Vladimir Putin continues to disarm, reducing its arsenals to 1,700 warheads. However, Russia would have to do this anyway, since it can't afford to maintain all its warheads. The United States also seems to be cutting its arsenals, but in a different way - the Americans do not destroy their weapons, they only place them in storage. Who knows, maybe one day they might still be useful. But Russia will not have its weapons that day.

Putin decided to sign an agreement, but - let us be frank - this agreement is not very good. This is an agreement between unequal partners. After the United States drew out of the ABM Treaty of 1972, it started building their national anti-aircraft system. And after it has been built, we will have to forget about equality for a long time.

Thinking that Moscow is glad about that would run contrary to common sense. Yet, who knows, someone in the Kremlin may be grinning happily. During the Yeltsin era we became accustomed to the idea that the Russian authorities can not only betray national interests, but also trample national pride. We cannot rule out the possibility that someone would like to move in the same direction now.

Bush will speak in Moscow about the agreement between Russia and NATO. This is a fine gesture on the part of the West; which, at first sight, indicates that Russia is respected. But let us not forget the fact that this November, in Prague, NATO will admit new members - countries of the former Warsaw Pact, and thus NATO will approach the borders of the former USSR. Of course, gradually NATO will turn into a political rather than military organization, which corresponds to the interests of Moscow. But even with its expanded composition the alliance will preserve its military structure. Questions, which will be settled within the framework of the new agreement Russia-NATO, will be of minor importance. The general representing Russia in Brussels may not oppose to that, but it will hardly help secure safety of the country. Moscow tries to pass the question of NATO expansion over in silence, but nobody intends to let off fireworks on this occasion.

It is natural that the latest statements of the US State Department have been full of optimism. And the Americans are right, in their way. Yet they should not celebrate prematurely over Russia becoming "one of us". The Western media says that Vladimir Putin is "one of us". Meaning that he does as "we" tell him. But is it really so? Frankly, I do not know how to reply. I consider Putin to be a fighter, who maintains self-control under a battering from the United States accompanied with encouraging words. He cannot do more than he does - he remains watchful, so as not to miss a knock-out blow. His friend George pats him on the shoulder at his Texas ranch, meanwhile continuing to deliver strong blows. Not long ago, Putin suddenly suggested that the former Soviet republics establish a unified military command of the armed forces which were left over after the "Evil Empire": Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. These five republics remain on "brotherly" terms, while Bush has managed to win the rest over to his side: Georgia, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan. Setting up a new military alliance, initiated by Russia, cannot be regarded as a friendly gesture toward the West. Even if we take into consideration the fact that Kyrgyzstan wants to join this new alliance, while the United States is going to establish a military base there. Obviously, the Kremlin has its own leverage there. Treating China as a potential ally, Putin is trying to win back at least a part of what has been lost. Moscow does not like the activity of the United States in Afghanistan. And Beijing may not like it either.

(Translated by Daria Brunova)

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