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PUTIN'S PRO-WEST POLICY LEADS TO GLOBAL SHIFT: IISS REPORT
AFP

LONDON, May 9 - Russian foreign policy has taken a "clearly pro-Western turn" since the September 11 attacks on the US, according to an annual report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), released Thursday.

The shift by Russian President Vladimir Putin is "one of the most striking features of the global strategic realignment" after the terror strikes, according to the London-based think tank.

"Russia has emerged as an important partner in the US-led international campaign against terrorism," says the IISS's Strategic Survey 2001-2002. "For the first time since the end of the Cold War, Russia and the West share important common interests in fighting international terrorism in all its forms."

This was particularly evident during the US-led military campaign in Afghanistan against the Taliban and chief terror suspect Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda network, said the report, an annual retrospective view of the years political and military trends.

Putin has been "surprising in his pragmatic willingness to supercede some of the iron taboos of Russia's post-Soviet foreign and security policy." His agreement to allow US troops to be deployed in Central Asia and the Caucasus "has rendered obsolete the concept of 'post-Soviet space' ... as an area of Russia's exclusive sphere of influence."

Putin's "audacious" actions have provided new impetus to Russian-NATO relations while "reinforcing the Western commitment to promoting Russia's economic development and political stability".

However, the Russian leader's support for the West carried "considerable political risks", including domestic accusations that he is making unilateral concessions to the West.

But the IISS report noted that Putin was enjoying strong political and popular support.

This was the result of Russia's economic growth over the past three years, which had provided "enough stability and prosperity ... for foreign policy issues to drop to the bottom rung of public concern."

Meanwhile, growing support for Putin in the West had "generated expectations that in the long run, Putin's decisions will advance Russia's international integration and economic development".

The post-September 11 convergence of Russian and Western interests did not represent a radical turn, "but rather the logical continuation of Putin's push for Russia's modernisation and integration," the report said.

Among the dangers for Putin because of his support for the West were that any problems with the economy -- such as declining oil prices or Russia's mounting debt obligations -- up to early 2003 were likely to cause a change in the public mood and leave him open to criticism.

Problematic areas for Russia included any military action by the US against Iraq, and the protracted presence of US troops in Central Asia. Economically, Russia would need the support of the West in addressing three major concerns -- its debt, its heavy reliance on the oil sector, and EU enlargement, the IISS report said.

"Unlike NATO enlargement, which constitutes a largely psychological and emotional threat to Russia's security, EU enlargement is likely to impose a real economic price on Russian businesses in dealing with neighbouring states and the EU in general."

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